Let me paint a picture for tomorrow: At open, Dow down 400+/S&P 45+, VIX spikes to 32.5+, rapid selling of AIG, LEH (obviously), C, XLF, GS, MS, WM, then selling programs/margin liquidation stop and a buy point emerges. VIX settles down, Dow/S&P ranges. This is all done in the first 7 minutes of RTH trading then we gradually go up through the day. Happened after January scare, Bear Stearns, Fannie/Freddie July scare, same thing to happen tomorrow.
And, hasn't this always marked a SHORT-TERM bottom? IMPORTANT NOTICE regarding Intraday Margin In light of the market volatility and the continuing turmoil in financial services stocks, IB will eliminate intraday margin reductions. Commencing at 10:30 P.M. EST today, contracts which utilize value-at-risk margin models such as SPAN, Eurex, or TIMS in the commodity sub-account. Traders may consult the account window in the Trader Work Station to see what the overnight margin will be. We expect that intraday margin reductions will remain suspended for subsequent trading sessions and we will make further announcements as market conditions develop. Regardless of the likelihood of large, rapid changes in market conditions, we recommend that traders examine their portfolios to consider their exposure under extreme-move scenarios. Interactive Brokers Risk Management
They'll certainly be sent down tomorrow morning. AIG and WM I will also be buying (with buy targets).
I believe this will exactly happen...geat post...then tues FOMC brings another rally and tonight is forgotten about...
Yea, another cut in the discount rate. That's really going to help... I think Aunt Ben fucked up big with that huge cut last year. REALLY DUMB....
aig is in no worse shape than wb or c yet its stock price collapse by relentless fear has paralyzed it. once they can get short term funding to stop this onslaught aig will be fine.
I think WM is the next target.... WB, not sure. If GS and MS are also in trouble... Time to look into rubles.
if gs is in trouble then.. we will never know about it. GS in trouble would literally kill the stock market.. and I mean kill it. ANyway .. your sceanrio for tomorrow could happen.. but I do not see it this way.. i do see areas tomorrow to buy .. but the trade of the day will be in the afternoon.. IM looking for a nice fast sell off into the close... not necessarilly to new lows.. but it mkt ralliesoff low of the day for a few hours then we get great sell offf at close.