He is just posting ideas. For more info read the first 6 posts (posts #61 to #66) on page 7 of this thread: Selling Naked Options
WPZ: http://www.thestreet.com/story/1323...d-by-fundamentals.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://realmoney.thestreet.com/arti...damentals?_ga=1.37526567.602116145.1438053771 http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WPZ+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true} http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.WPZ.NYS?symbol=WPZ&form=PRFIEQ http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/07/14/pipeline-merger-williams-companies/ Williams Partners L.P. is a subsidiary of Williams Companies, Inc. Trade: with WPZ at 45.63 sell March $40 put for a net credit of $235 Yield = 235/3765 = 6.34% in 235 days or 9.7% annualized Prob = 63% Price............... Profit / Loss......... ROM % 30.00................... (765.00).......... -19.13% 35.19................... (246.10)........... -6.15% 37.65........................ 0.00............. 0.00% 40.00..................... 235.00............ 6.34% 40.65..................... 235.00............ 6.34% 46.11..................... 235.00............ 6.34% 51.58..................... 235.00............ 6.34% I will make this trade with the intent of buying WPZ at $40 WPZ currently yields 7.6% If I don't want to buy WPZ and I want to limit the downside: March 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 235 days or 13.5% annualized Prob = 63% Price ..................Profit / Loss........... ROM % 26.25..................... (460.00).............. -92.00% 32.16..................... (460.00).............. -92.00% 35.00..................... (460.00).............. -92.00% 38.38..................... (122.20).............. -24.44% 39.60.......................... 0.00.................. 0.00% 40.00........................ 40.00.................. 8.70% 44.60........................ 40.00.................. 8.70% 50.82........................ 40.00.................. 8.70% 57.04........................ 40.00.................. 8.70% Note: it may be well to wait for the coming interest rate increase before doing this trade.
DOW: http://www.forbes.com/sites/narrativescience/2015/07/21/dow-chemical-earnings-projected-to-increase/ http://www.streetinsider.com/Earnings/Dow+Chemical+(DOW)+Tops+Q2+EPS+by+8c/10744488.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-cheap-stocks-buy-now-211009465.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.DOW.NYS?symbol=DOW&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DOW+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true} Trade: with DOW at 45.63 Jan 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $51 Yield = 51/449 = 11.4% in 171 days or 24% annualized Prob = 89% Price............. Profit / Loss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
DOW looks to have good expectancy: probability finishing above 35.0: 0.90 probability finishing below 30.0: 0.02 probability between: 0.08 0.90(51) - 0.02(449) - 0.08(224) = 17.31
GSK: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/glaxosmithkline-q2-beats-despite-advair-111044885.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/drugmaker-gsk-sees-earnings-growth-123006668.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/glaxo-gsk-beats-q2-earnings-123712680.html http://healthland.time.com/2012/07/05/breaking-down-glaxosmithklines-billion-dollar-wrongdoing/ http://finance.yahoo.com/video/4-stocks-4-trades-gilead-162700096.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/glaxosmithkline-beats-profit-forecasts-despite-113423912.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.GSK.NYS?symbol=GSK&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GSK+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true} Trade: With GSK at 42.62 Jan 40/37 bull put spread for a net credit of $55 Yield = 55/245 = 22.4% in 169 days or 48% annualized Prob = 66% Expectation = .66(55) - .17(245) - .17(123) = 36.3 - 42.6 - 20.9 = -27.2 Price.................. Profit / Loss............. ROM % 27.00..................... (245.00)................ -81.67% 32.00..................... (245.00)................ -81.67% 37.00..................... (245.00)................ -81.67% 37.81..................... (164.50)............... -54.83% 39.45.......................... 0.00................... 0.00% 40.00......................... 55.00................. 22.43% 42.96......................... 55.00................. 22.43% 45.00......................... 55.00................. 22.43% 50.00......................... 55.00................. 22.43%
CLX: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/clorox-jumps-cleaning-4th-quarter-171349850.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.CLX.NYS?symbol=CLX&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=clx Trade: With CLX at 114.83 Jan 100/95 bull call spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/475 = 5.3% in 165 days or 11.6% annualized Prob = 90% Expectation = .9(25) - .04(475) -.06(238) =22.5 - 19.0 - 14.3 = -11 Price............. Profit / Loss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
XOM: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tumbling-oil-prices-slam-profit-153251221.html http://finance.yahoo.com/video/brent-falls-below-50-first-012019872.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.XOM.NYS?symbol=XOM&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=uso http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=xom Trade: with XOM at 78.06 Jan 90/95 bear call spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 165 days or 14% annualized Prob = 86% Expectation = .86(30) - .075(470) - .06(235) = 25.8 - 35.3 - 14.1 = -24 Price............. Profit / Loss............. ROM % 60.00................... 30.00................... 6.40% 70.00................... 30.00................... 6.40% 80.00................... 30.00................... 6.40% 90.00................... 30.00................... 6.40% 90.30..................... 0.00................... 0.00% 94.42................ (412.50)............... -82.50% 95.00................ (470.00)............... -94.00% 100.00.............. (470.00)............... -94.00% 120.00.............. (470.00)............... -94.00%
GMCR: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ts-forecast-after-pod-demand-slows?cmpid=yhoo http://finance.yahoo.com/news/keurig-plunges-3q-sales-says-205925659.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.GMCR.NAS?symbol=GMCR&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GMCR+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true} Trade: With GMCR at 74.98 Jan 95/100 bear call spread for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 163 days or 31% annualized Prob = 80% Expectation = .8(60) - .16(440) - .04(220) = 108 - 70.4 - 8.8 = 28.8 Price.................. Profit / Loss............... ROM % 55.00....................... 60.00.................... 13.60% 65.00....................... 60.00.................... 13.60% 75.00........................60.00.....................13.60% 85.00....................... 60.00.................... 13.60% 95.00....................... 60.00.................... 13.60% 95.60......................... 0.00..................... 0.00% 97.22..................... (161.60)................ -32.32% 100.00................... (440.00)................ -88.00% 110.00................... (440.00)................ -88.00% 125.00................... (440.00)................ -88.00% Alternate trade: With GMCR at 74.98 Jan 75/70 bear put spread for a net debit of $283 Yield = 217/500 = 43% in 163 days or 97% annualized Prob = 51% Price................. Profit / Loss............ ROI % 55.00................... 217.00................. 76.68% 65.00................... 217.00................. 76.68% 68.00................... 217.00................. 76.68% 70.00.................. 217.00.................. 76.68% 72.17..................... 0.00.................... 0.00% 75.00................. (283.00).............. -100.00% 80.00................. (283.00).............. -100.00% 85.00................. (283.00).............. -100.00% 95.00................. (283.00).............. -100.00%
NWN: http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.NWN.NYS?symbol=NWN&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NWN&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true} Trade: with NWN at 43.78 DEC 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 133 days or 21% annualized Prob = 78% Expectation = .78(35) - .025(465) - .195(232) = 27.3 - 11.6 - 45.2 = -29.5 Price................. Profit / Loss........ ROM % 25.00.................. (465.00).............. -93.00% 30.00.................. (465.00).............. -93.00% 35.00.................. (465.00).............. -93.00% 37.47.................. (218.30).............. -43.66% 39.65...................... 0.00................... 0.00% 40.00..................... 35.00.................. 7.50% 45.00..................... 35.00.................. 7.50% 50.00..................... 35.00.................. 7.50% 55.00..................... 35.00.................. 7.50%
TSLA: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/tesla-key-takeaways-from-earnings-cm506780 http://www.nasdaq.com/article/tesla...-as-investors-question-its-ambitions-cm506083 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/09/us-teslamotors-cash-insight-idUSKCN0QE0DC20150809 http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.TSLA.NAS?symbol=TSLA&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TSLA+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true} Trade: With TSLA at 242.51 Jan 300/305 bear call spread for a net credit of $65 Yield = 65/435 = 14.9% in 159 days or 34% annualized Prob = 83% Expectation = .83(65) - .16(435) - .01(217) = 53.9 - 69.6 - 2.3 = -18 Price.................. Profit / Loss............. ROM % 181.88................... 65.00.................... 14.90% 220.14................... 65.00.................... 14.90% 260.42................... 65.00.................... 14.90% 300.00................... 65.00.................... 14.90% 300.65.................... 0.00....................... 0.00% 300.70................... (4.70).................... -0.94% 305.00................... (435.00)................ -85.10% 340.97................... (435.00)................ -85.10% 381.25................... (435.00)................ -85.10%