oldnemesis ........ In the 4 years of "real time trades" you have not posted a single closing trade in your thread - whether it has expired worthless, hit maximum loss, or closed early due to the position moving against you. Have you ever posted any closing trades in "real time" in your thread? Have you ever posted the P/L to date in your thread? If so could you provide links? If you haven't posted any closing trades or P/L could you provide a reason for not doing so?
ALKS: CLOSEOUT Someone complained that I never closeout my trades on my thread. This is true. Why is that? Well...there really is no reason to. My thread proposes POSSIBLE trades. It is not a log of my actual trades. I may investigate a trade there and decide that it doesn't fit my portfolio or the stage of the market or I don't even have the money and thus I may not actually make the trade. I do not guarantee that I make all, or even most trades that are investigated in this thread. 99% of the trades proposed on the thread are designed to go to expiration which is stated in the trade proposal so it's redundant to post all the expirations. If I do make the trade my brokerage accounts keep an infinitely better record of those trades and spending time updating my thread with closeouts and expirations is wasted time for me, regardless of how useful it may be for some erstwhile critic. Also...I am not trying to PROVE anything by my thread. I am simply exploring POSSIBLE trades that MAY fit my methodology. It is an exercise in possibilities. EAH POST IS COMPLETELY SELF CONTAINED...THERE IS NOTHING MORE TO SAY. Now today I closed out a trade. Back on 2/25 I implemented a bear call spread trade on ALKS. If you go back in my thread to 2/25 you will find a complete record of the logic of that trade. Today ALKS began to pull up primarily because ALKS reported a narrower loss than expected for last quarter. There are other news items which may also raise people's expectation for the stock. Since my bear call spread had realized 75% of it's expected profit, rather than wait to see how big the response would be and how long it would last I just closed the trade. Also I was glad to free up the cash. The trade as finalized realized 72 (out of 95 possible) points with a 405 outlay for a gain of 72/405 = 17.8% in 83 days or 78% annualized. Now it does ME no good whatsoever to make this kind of report as the data is in my brokerage account is complete and is all I need, and I will never do this again. BTW this has been said at least twice before in the thread.
WOW ....... No need for the song and dance. IMO ....... Opening trades or exploring possible trades is 5% of trading, the other 95% is the outcome of those trades. Without knowing the P/L you are back to square one. Obviously you don't post the closing trades, including expirations for a reason other than you stated above - you are hiding the true P/L, which is much lower than you would like us to believe.
"Opening trades or exploring possible trades is 5% of trading, the other 95% is the outcome of those trades." Do you have any data or references to support this statement? I actually believe the opposite. I think trade identification is 95% and 5% management. In my trades once the trade is made it is only a matter of waiting for expiration and watching for extraordinary events like ALKS. "Obviously you don't post the closing trades, including expirations for a reason other than you stated above - you are hiding the true P/L" Really? and you know this how? Actually, since the trade possibilities are posted upfront, anyone who wants to spend the time could track the P/L of my basic set of trade possibilities. This actually has been done in the past by people with similar malignant personalities and found that the P/L on the trades in my thread is higher than they thought. (PUTMASTER and friends who are now all banned). I invite you to go ahead and do so. "is much lower than you would like us to believe." and what is the return I 'would like you to believe?' and just why would I like you to believe anything?? I frankly don't give a damn. I rarely volunteer information (because of nice guys like you) and only did so in this case because it was asked for. I don't ever remember claiming a return. In fact I am pretty sure I avoid doing so, even when people ask for it. WOW yourself. You, like most of the regulars on this board, are an AH...IMO.
He's not making claims that he's making or losing money. He is just posting ideas. If he were making those claims, I would understand why you would want proof.
OK ..... He did try and pass his thread of as "4 years of real time trades" - his quote not mine. I respect his request not to post on his thread, but when oldnemesis promotes his thread on another thread he is open to constructive criticism - there is no need for him to be so defensive.
The reason he doesn't post closing trades, management of losing trades, or a P/L is the same reason other people do the same thing all over the internet everywhere you look. It's because they don't actually have any idea how to make a long-term profit, they just know how to "identify possible ideas" and tell you how to open them. He's one of these guys that has a million "business ideas" but still works at KFC. How many so called options guru's have you seen teaching how to open trades, and not a single one of them would dare back any of it up with a verifiable track record or follow through with any of the trades they've talked about. He's just trying to boost his e-ego by posting trades in a thread with no accountability for any of it hoping some of the newbie traders here give him some internet props. You have to ask yourself, what kind of person posts an endless stream of opening transactions only, on an anonymous chat forum? He ain't exactly the sharpest tool in the shed is he? That thread couldn't be more meaningless if you tried, yet you're still at it.....
So you want to go to individual tickers right? You want to ram you thick skull straight through the wall right? Ok, if you're doing individual stocks, we have to factor in DRAWDOWNS when you're wrong. Simply put, forget about it. Even with a crystal ball theres countless strategies with far far better risk / reward profiles. Without a crystal ball, it's a down right joke. If you stick close to the money, trade 1-3 months out at most, and switch up your underlying to follow the higher IV's, the strategy transforms from a dud into a potential long term winner. I personally use it and it's 13% annualized over 3 years with a Sharpe of 2 and an ulcer of 9. [/QUOTE] A Sharpe of 2 based on a 13% annualized return (assuming 25bps risk-free) implies a sigma of 6.38%. So somehow you've managed to chase "high-flying" IV names, selling ATM vol at a much lower level of portfolio variance than a buy-and-hold SPY investor.....I call BS. And an ulcer of 9 at 6.38% portfolio vol? What level were you at the week Lehman went down?
"A Sharpe of 2 based on a 13% annualized return (assuming 25bps risk-free) implies a sigma of 6.38%. So somehow you've managed to chase "high-flying" IV names, selling ATM vol at a much lower level of portfolio variance than a buy-and-hold SPY investor.....I call BS." Oh noez... Amateur trader on a public chat forum calls BS on my fund, what am I to do now? And rank amateur numero uno gives it a thumbs up, classic. It's adorable how you beginner traders follow each other around on this forum and represent ! Too bad between the three of you there isn't enough grey matter to have a single intelligent thought. I simply trade reasonably stable underlyings that are in the high ranges of their IV, closer to the money, as I've stated countess times in this thread. Man you're thick, you STILL don't get it? It's amazing how bad you guys are at this trading thing. Here's the tickers I traded since Jan 1st of this year, 2-4 times per in months it was attractive: SPY, TLT, GLD, SLV, PM, WMT, AAPL, AMJ Oooh, high flyers !!! I'm just way smarter than you, that's why you don't understand this stuff. And oh dear god, am I arguing with someone who can't beat the SPY on a risk adjusted basis? WTF is wrong with you?
This from the guy who couldn't understand a theoretical comment in the beginning and then was so focused on his nonsensical point that "NO options 15% OTM had any value" assumed I was saying something that I wasn't. That's a lack of grey matter. It still bogles my mind that you can call yourself VIX trader and couldn't comprehend this. And then you resort to personal attacks about my intelligence and my trading prowness. We all know the stereotypical individual who acts this way. I read a lot of your posts. There is virtually no content and just snide remarks. You are going on ignore now. Good luck on your fund or whatever you claim you are doing.