PCLN took a pounding...... I regret not buying the weekly PCLN puts and posting the trade live to ET - I would be an ET hero after such a trade.
only regret is i didn't hold onto my gold futures long enough, but also happy i wasn't stupid enough to be long equities and oil into the decision
I underestimated the power of news until I saw the incredible price fall in GBP and EUR and price rise in Gold ... learned something
"Brexit - The Aftermath. Thoughts? Regrets? Another ET Brexit thread? Why?" I had a large size long position in an auto parts company stock. Because the volatility and volume dropped and hit a resistance level recently, I got bored and sold them all on Thursday morning in addition to closing all my other positions for some gain early in the week. I just wanted to hold on to the cash till the U.K. referendum was over. Strangely enough, within two hours of selling the stock, it took off and the stock gained less than 5% value and reached right about the value I initially intended to sell it. So, thinking Bremain was going to happen as most people believed, I said to myself "what the heck, let's apply EMH (efficient market hypothesis) here" and I shorted the auto part stock while it was still up about 4.5% before the market closed on Thursday. The only regret I have is I intended to short much larger quantity. With Brexit, the stock value dropped about 4.5% and as much as 5.8% (just about the same value the previous day). Even though I might've cashed on the profit I missed earlier, I didn't close my position. I am hoping it would lose a lot more than that because of the low volume, low volatility and resistance level. I kept shorting and buying back the stock during the day in order to keep or push down the price a little further every time it was moving upward which seemed like working. If the support level doesn't change for the worse on Monday, I will probably get out of it because I have been watching some stocks for so long and want to buy but the price was never right. Now, I'd like to create a long position in some stocks but a little at a time since one really can't tell when the stock prices hit the dip at a certain period of time.
I really thought - based on the lopsided odds from the brokers - that REMAIN was all but certain. That notwithstanding, you never know how these things will turn out. I had some pretty wide butterfly spreads (expiring yesterday) and had cashed out the long half at 90% and was fully prepared to pay 100% of the short side with a REMAIN win. I don't have to tell you what happened Thursday night and Friday morning. I probably shouldn't have done it, but I threw on another fly Friday morning around 2030 (expiring at the end of the day) thinking we'd probably wind up around there at the end of the day. I cashed out 90% of the long side as we breached 2060+ and prepared for a decent loss by day's end. Damned if we didn't turn and the whole thing came back to me AGAIN. I took it off mid afternoon having doubled my outlay from the morning...could've had a triple, but you know what they say about pigs. It felt good to have a couple of nice winners in the face of one of these big moving events. I have certainly been on the losing side enough times in my career.
I love the volatility hence the opportunity but I don't get oil...why the move of oil? I was flat and now have a small equity position and keep nibbling.