No evidence? Are you blind? Look at the pound; look at FTSE and it's only a couple of days since the referendum. A lot of companies are gonna leave the U.K. now for Copenhagen or other cities in the EU. Scotland is going to have another referendum where they most probably gonna leave the U.K. WTF are you talking about?
They wanted their country back - they got it. But no one thought what's next. The scenario is gonna look like this: BJ is going to be the next PM Scotland will leave the U.K. and join the E.U. E.U. most probably will try to punish the G.B. and the trade deals that they will get will be appalling A lot of financial companies will move to the E.U. countries. GB will lose a lot of cheap labour. And of course, they will finally be independent from these f*cking bureaucrats.
This was all known by Leave side before the vote. Some job losses are inevitable. That's why I wrote that there is no evidence of Leave voters changing their mind. On the contrary, the reaction of EU officials will likely harden opinion of all voters that leaving the EU is best choice for UK. The people still making noises in London, Scotland and the media are those that never wanted to leave the project in the first place. Some short term volatility is a necessary cost for independence. EU officials were never going to make it easy, though the childish reaction is somewhat surprising..they do seem really keen to exact revenge on the UK, I'll give you that.. As for Scotland, that's not a priority, and with current low oil price it's not certain how a referendum would go. Ultimately if the Scots want to join the Eurozone that's their decision, during the last referendum they were not too keen on signing up to the Euro, which is a requirement for new EU members.
You keep talking about independence but the UK still needs to trade with EU, therefore it needs to follow EU rules for almost everything. Like many others have said, this is leaving the EU in name only. The EU officials' reaction is not surprising at all, this was well known in advance. Why would they react any differently? All the work done to accommodate the UK requests in previous years was for nothing. Scotland didn't want the Euro due to the Greek crisis which is still ongoing but in light of Brexit, the pound isn't that reliable either and the EU appears to be the logical choice. It might end well, Northern Ireland uniting with Ireland as it should and Scotland finally becoming independent. Even London wants to stay in the EU and when decades from now London might separate, things get interesting.
The point is freedom of movement has to stay intact and contributions to EU budget have to remain, just like with Norway and Switzerland. UK just loses the ability to vote or veto for anything.
I suspect that contributions to EU budget will be acceptable to UK (even the Leave side know that some price must be paid) but not free movement of labour. The EU will want to insist on this due to pressure from Eastern European bloc so UK resolve will be tested. Hence it could be SEVERAL YEARS not months before Article 50 is triggered. Politically just not acceptable for UK to relent to EU bureaucrat pressure. The EU said they didn't want a game of cat and mouse but I can't see it being anything else.
You are aware, of course, that the Swiss people have voted against the freedom of movement in a referendum held in 2014? This, unlike the UK referendum, is legally binding and has to come into effect by February 2017. Negotiations with the EU are still going, so too early to tell what the outcome will be...
Outcome of the Swiss-EU negotiations, you mean? I tend to feel the EU will pull back on freedom of movement further down the line. Perhaps if the Dutch right wing PM is elected in March next year and Netherlands decides to hold a referendum like the UK. But it could happen much earlier than this also, depending on the political developments in the 27 other member countries. I don't think the UK will budge on freedom of movement though (not politically acceptable), and I'm not convinced Article 50 will necessarily be triggered as soon as we get the next PM either. That could take a LOT longer than most people are expecting. What do you think will happen?
Yes, I mean the Swiss-EU negotiations... Obviously, Switzerland is not a member of either the EU or the EEA, but I think the precedent would be instructive. And yes, there talk now that the Article 50 could either take a long time or not happen at all, in fact. In other news, FTSE 100 is above the pre-Brexit close. FTSE 250 is still 7.5% below.