Oil Rig Count and Predicting a Rebound

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Blitzinger, Nov 23, 2015.

  1. i960

    i960

    While no doubt oil is inversely correlated to the dollar, the current 180 day CL/DX correlation is about -0.10 right now.
     
    #21     Nov 28, 2015
  2. Cswim63

    Cswim63

    Wow. So what is crude correlated to right now?
     
    #22     Nov 28, 2015
  3. i960

    i960

    #23     Nov 28, 2015
  4. Cswim63

    Cswim63

    #24     Nov 28, 2015
  5. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    That's correct. It's both a perfect storm of demand destruction in the face of endless supply. And even worse for energy companies is the coming rising rate environment. Oh God, someone better katy bar the door. It's going to get ugly.
     
    #25     Nov 28, 2015
  6. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    China. Anything China. Run a corr with WTI and Copper, Steel.....it's ugly man.
     
    #26     Nov 28, 2015
    i960 likes this.
  7. Cswim63

    Cswim63

    Are there any publicly traded bankruptcy lawyers? I wonder if Ritchie Brothers' business goes up entering a recession--overall. Wonder if it's better or worse in Texas right now. After all, they get paid to clean up the mess
     
    #27     Nov 28, 2015
  8. xandman

    xandman

    #28     Nov 29, 2015
  9. bone

    bone

    I guess I see the rig count data and the economic data much differently than the OP. I see much more supply than demand, and so does the market.

    With such a humongous and stranded supply of crude in the U.S. and Canadian mainland, does it make sense to pick a bottom ? My guess is that commercial producers will sell into any market action above $50 just to hedge their forward production.

    "Rig activity levels across the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin stood at 26 per cent this week, up slightly from last week’s rate of 24 per cent, Rig Locator records show.

    There were an average 195 active rigs at work out of a fleet of 762."

    http://www.dailyoilbulletin.com/article/2015/11/27/rig-activity-rates-remain-stagnant/
     
    #29     Dec 1, 2015
  10. xandman

    xandman

    Bone, the contango is already very extreme. How would you trade a flattening ( maybe even steepening) of the forward curve in a :

    1) Recessionary environment
    2) Recovery environment

    Thank you.
     
    #30     Dec 2, 2015