Basically agree. It seems there is a certain class of people who do not like to think for themselves, or can't. The market strategists at the houses fulfill that need well. It also gives people the illusion of control-- that someone is on top of the situation, monitoring for signs of change. The reality is that the prediction business doesn't seem to be more accurate than flipping a coin, the exceptions proving the rule. It seems that it's more public relations than anything. The more stuff you say, the more attention you get. If you don't do it, your competition will, and they will get the trade flow. Mostly if your opinion turns out wrong, people forget. And that's what all of it is--opinion. If you think the house sauce is better, that they are saving it for themselves, I give you Lehman Brothers.
The reality is that the prediction business in "public media includes CNBC, Ibanks marketing" doesn't seem to be more accurate than flipping a coin, or should be worse than flipping a coin.
I still see guys in here trying to pick a bottom, which sort of shocks me. Yesterday about buying KMI. So I guess there's still some buyers left, despite how oversold it all is. Now we need some chest beating about what a great short oil was for them.
What are you scared about? My (our) traders' antannae just got an erection over that one. It's going down, the opposite of up.
Sure, in the long run, all competitive markets end up getting priced at marginal cost. In the case of oil that will be the marginal cost of the lowest cost producer which is Saudi. That will be in the $10 to $15 range.
I would say, look for some signs of hysteria in either oil or sp for some kind of bottom. Usually bottoms and tops take time to form, so there's no rush. I've spotted my first newbie trying to find a way to buy oil puts, so there's a straw in the wind.