Yesterday's Close?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by PennySnatch, May 7, 2024.

  1. I have a question to the ES traders out there who mark yesterday's close on their charts.

    As far as the day session is concerned, what is the statistical probability based on historical data price will "close the gap" back to yesterday's close sometime during the regular session?

    Take today for example, the ES traded above yesterday's close (5205) to 5226. Later in the session price fell back to 5205 and bounced off it. I have noticed that price has a frequent tendency to find it's way back to yesterday's close whether it moved above or below it during the day session or whether it gapped above or below it in the overnight.

    Please let me know your thoughts. Thanks.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2024
  2. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

    Each day of the week is different.

    Thursday gaps are most likely to fill that day.

    Monday gaps the least likely to fill that day.

    During a bull market, gaps down will fill at a significantly higher rate than gaps up, which may never fill.

    During a bear market, gaps up will fill at a significantly higher rate than gaps down.
     
  3. Thank you Rams Fan. What you are saying makes sense.
     
    Rams Fan likes this.
  4. mervyn

    mervyn

    depends on the day’s finish, if it is a strong day, up or down, 6pm est to asian opening is likely to be on the same direction, 5-10 points can be easily made.

    there is no relationship of levels in the same market.
     
    PennySnatch likes this.
  5. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Most refer to prior day's settlement @ 4pm ET, not close (either 4 or 5 pm ET) to define potential intra day to day gaps.
     
    p0box4 and PennySnatch like this.
  6. On Ninja, the close for the ES is 5:00 PM ET and that is what is marked on the chart.
     
  7. comagnum

    comagnum

    This is for the QQQ gaps - the SPY gaps are practically identical.

    upload_2024-5-7_14-39-58.png
     
  8. Overnight

    Overnight

    There is no overnight session in futures when it comes to price action. One hour is a very narrow window for anything to happen that would affect them in any way.
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  9. p0box4

    p0box4

    Interesting, do you know of a website that provides data on when the QQQ gapped either up or down, for free if possible since I just want to take a quick look at the data.
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    Good grief. Just subtract closing QQQ price from current price of the NQ futures, and there you have it.
     
    #10     May 7, 2024
    murray t turtle likes this.