What's up with this stock ? Man, it's all over the place. Chart shows a series of lower highs.....time to short ?
I personally disagree that it has lower highs. Depends entirely on the time frame and time span you are looking at. But then that all comes down to the time frame you trade and trading style and definition of trend, etc.. I personally try not to short stocks that look like they are in an uptrend (by my set of rules). That is just my trading style. The chart in my opinion looks like it's about to go lower for either a retrace to resume the uptrend or to stay in a choppy trading range. Usually stocks dont suddenly reverse from uptrend to downtrend without going through some chop. Since I am a trend trader I usually do not trade chop unless I don't know I am in it or I have no other trends to follow/trade. If I WERE to trade it I would short it with plan to get out at bottom of trading range...but as I said above I don't usually trade chop or short an uptrend retracement (as per my rules). That's my assessment. But may I ask why are you not trading what you believe? If you think it is toppy...TRADE THAT. Why ask on a forum if you should take a trade? I am NOT flaming you...it's just that if you have to ask if you should trade it you probably need help developing a system or at least a set of defined rules to get in and get out. It either meets those criteria or it does not. So is it time to short???
////Why ask on a forum if you should take a trade? I am NOT flaming you...it's just that if you have to ask if you should trade it you probably need help developing a system or at least a set of defined rules to get in and get out.//// Discussion maybe.
I can't discuss anything about his trading method because it appears he has none. He did not mention if he day trades, swing trades or what. Are his rules to trade for small profits of a few dollars or set wider stops and shoot for homeruns of 20% win or more. Where is his profit target, stop loss. I have no idea. MY rules would NOT allow me to trade that so I mentioned that and why in the first part of my response. He just said,..."it's all over the place" ,..."is it time to short?". The only rationale was a set of lower highs. He did not mention on what time frame those lower highs were either. I don't see lower highs. Since Jan to June it's made higher highs and since June to now has apparently been in trading range by MY RULES even though the highs have been only slightly lower. He needs to define what time frame he wants to trade, what type of trader he is, risk and drawdown he is willing to take and if he is willing to trade chop or look for trends. How does he define a trend or chop? Does he want to trade a reversion to the mean method or what? What is his signal to get in and even more important what is signal to get out? If he had all of that he would not be asking the question is it time to short on an open forum. Why listen to random people online about whether a trade should be taken and risk his hard earned money? Why should he listen to me for that matter? I am only trying to point out weakness I see in a constructive fashion. He will have to decide if my words have any value for him. By the way I didn't see you offer any discussion of the trade. What are YOUR thoughts. Is it time to short?
Well, here's how I see it: A rising wedge usually results in an upside break-out. However, I believe any move up from here will be a fake-out instead. The fundies are not good either:http://finance.yahoo.com/m/8ef7139c-e3f6-34e8-b682-45233ad0396f/ss_wynn,-sands,-and-mgm-should.html
OK. So will you short from here or wait for the upside fake out? What will you do if the upside break out never comes? Is that last 3 or so bars showing a topping H&S that you should trade? If you take the trade now and it does fake higher then where do you place your stop? Based on that stop placement is the R:R worth it? What is your target price to make that R:R worth it?
I'll do the 95-90 debit put spread....September expiration. No stop. Yes, I see the H&S...but it's kind of a crooked one.
I would play it short if and when something big was going on in China. Regardless of the percentage of their China operations revenue/earnings, whatever happens in Macau seems to move this stock. Other than that, at this level, I haven't really looked at it and I have no opinion at this time. I went long a while back for a short term trade when it had momentum from Steve's buy. Since Wiz brought it up though, I am going to add it to my radar list.
In effect, this is a bet against the economy in China. No doubt there is risk in this trade as China is not always truthful in the statements or stats on their economy.