Kamala Harris and Donald Trump “are neck and neck in the polls. But in one popular betting market, the odds have skewed heavily in Trump’s favor, raising questions about a recent flurry of wagers and who is behind them,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets.” Said Musk: “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.” “But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.”
I was wondering if deep pocketed Trump supporters have been manipulating some of the betting markets to create the illusion that Trump is leading. The polls in aggregation (which are effectively showing even) have diverged from these betting markets. Taken collectively with the information from Simon Rosenberg showing the MAGA movement is flooding the market with pro-Trump polling firm results to create an illusion that Trump is ahead -- we can only assume that Trump world is trying to set the table if they lose the election to claim it was fraud (which would be false just like it was in 2020). With the additional benefit that these biased polls and gamed betting markets showing Trump ahead may cause some potential Harris supporters to skip voting.
It's a mere $2 Billion as of a day ago. US Presidential Election Tops $2 Billion in Betting Volume on Polymarket Trump is currently leading the Polymarket betting pool on the winner of the U.S. election, which has topped $2 billion in total volume. https://decrypt.co/286923/us-presidential-election-2-billion-volume-polymarket
If you add up all the US election markets (state races etc, who will in popular vote etc) on Polymarket its well over 2 billion. Plus the four accounts add up closer to $25 million and they rounded it up to 30 million. They represent less than 1% of bets. Accounts named Fredi9999, Princess Caro, Michie, and Theo4 have collectively spent nearly $24.7 million on the 2024 presidential election.
Trump's lead in the betting markets is consistent with how he's overtaken Harris in the battleground state polls.
Correct, Harris was ahead on Polymarket as the predicted electoral vote winner before Trump took the lead in the swing state polls. And Harris is still well ahead on Polymarket with regard to who will win the popular vote, again matching the polls: Current Polymarket Popular Vote Winner 2024 Kamala Harris 67% Donald Trump 33% And the popular vote market is only a fraction of the electoral vote market, so if someone wanted to manipulate it, would be much easier to do..