This thread is a layman’s view of how geopolitical events involving Ukraine could escalate, what World War III would look like, and ideas how to prepare. Escalation - Wolf trampled by stampeding sheep NATO appears to be committed to helping Ukraine on the idea that given Putin’s actions and statements over the last few years, he wants to restore the Soviet area lands back into Russia, which now includes several NATO members. Putin’s current engagement with Ukraine has tied up some of Russia’s conventional forces as well as economic capacity due to sanctions. If there were any time to “Make a stand against Putin, that time is now”, is the current thinking by the West, it seems. Should Belarus, China, or India become actively involved on Russia’s side or Putin authorizes the use of chemical or other WMDs on Ukraine, a reasonable NATO response would be to enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine. By extension, the enforcement of, or the attempted circumvention of a no fly zone would lead to the engaging of NATO and Russian forces. While some may say that as long as losses involving the major powers remain even, escalation to a massive exchange of WMDs is not a forgone conclusion. The problem with that kind of thinking are differences in each side’s perception how the war is going may differ or not reflect “Reality”. Both sides have their strong reasons to commit to the war in Ukraine. A “Victory” for one side represents a “Loss” for the other, leading to an seemingly unacceptable result, justifying ever greater commitment to a favorable outcome. Putin’s threatened or actual use of WMDs is not likely to deter NATO’s commitment to Ukraine because, again, we either can face Putin now, while he is “Busy”, or later, when he is better prepared. Once the key event happens, assuming it hasn’t happened already, the path leading to a major exchange of WMDs outside the current theater of war seems likely. For example, once a WMD is utilized, it is likely the subsequent use and other types of WMDs becomes “Unlocked” by both sides. WMDs include, among other things, Nuclear, chemical. non-infectious biological, and infectious biological weapons. Whether WMDs are used to reestablish perceived “Parity” or advantage in the war involving Ukraine, it all but forces a response by the other side. General target categories are: In-theater military, out of theater military, economic (Including transportation infrastructure, non nuclear energy production, factories, and nuclear energy production and nuclear waste storage facilities), and population centers. Many targets involve a mix of categories that can be affected by a WMD, potentially adding to an already escalatory scenario. It has to be nearly impossible to assess the other side’s response to collateral damage. Further, each side’s fear the other may go for the substantial advantage garnered by a massive first strike involving WMDs could result in ultimate escalation on almost no notice. Hey Pandora, what are you doing after the show? The unburied, decaying bodies of multiple mass casualty events will foster disease. Starvation due to supply chain disruptions and reductions of farm productivity due to reduced availability of fertilizers, pesticides, radiation related stunting, and shorted growing seasons due to nuclear winter will further reduce population. Life expectancy at birth will likely range from 35 to 45 in most Northern hemisphere countries. Weakened immune systems will allow diseases, both natural and manmade, to flourish and compound deaths. Radioactive fallout from ground bursts should dissipate relatively quickly, from 3 days to 2 weeks, depending on overlapping, weather, and assuming no ground bursts, especially involving nuclear power reactors and nuclear waste storage facilities, either on nuclear plant sites, or off site. If most nuclear power plants in the Northern hemisphere are targeted by high yield nuclear weapons, a quick look at nukemap.com can give one an idea of how bad the fallout would be. Long lived isotopes includes bone affinity, leukemia causing, Strontium-90 with its 30 year half life, water soluble Cesium-137 that accumulates in plants, contaminates open water supplies, and also has a 30 year half life. Carbon-14, noted for causing genetic damage, has a half life of 5730 years. Iodine-131 is very radioactive, but has a half live of only 8 days and will accumulate and damage thyroids that are iodine deficient. Death by anarchy and local combat will only add to the dire prospects for the Northern hemisphere post massive WMD exchange. In essence, our civilization become irrelevant, if not effectively extinct. At least we showed the other side we were not to be trifled with, right? Preparation H - A plan to live a little longer. I would estimate a reasonable life expectancy living an active life immediately or soon after a major exchange of WMDs would be about 6 weeks, assuming primary effects are avoided, of course. This makes committing directly to the war effort or early post war reconstruction efforts easier. Further, procuring needed supplies and equipment becomes less daunting. As satellites and other communications infrastructure are likely to be lost, along with internet and GPS capabilities, hard copies of maps, key locations, classic navigation tools, and radio equipment become a priority. Skills in navigation and various communication methods become paramount to maintaining effective active involvement. Radiation detection equipment, PPE, and shielding/shelter strategies are critical as well. Food, water, multiple purpose edible oils, and other supplies must be accumulated before an expectation of WW-III is reached by the public. For personal, family/group security, weapons, ammunition, and related knowledge are indispensable for survival or contribution to the war effort. What’s a mother to do? It appears to be in everyone’s long term best interest to call the current fight involving Ukraine a draw, agree to reasonable peace terms, go home, and help Ukraine rebuild. Either major power can ultimately “Force” a draw by fully using their entire inventory of WMDs, even after suffering a massive first strike by the other side. A draw later will be less satisfying that a draw now. WMD intimidation has already failed as shown by NATO’s willingness to help Ukraine by delivery of potent weapon systems in spite of Putin’s warnings. Whatever one may think of Biden’s capabilities, the fact is he is an administrator who is backed by a competent administration, a very focused NATO, and the awe inspiring fighting spirit of the Ukrainians. As such, any assumption that NATO would never pursue certain actions may be incorrect. Putin says he would use WMDs in case of an “Existential threat”. What is considered an existential threat likely differs between Putin and NATO, increasing chances of a dangerous miscalculation. Ironically, the biggest existential threat for Russia, Putin, and others, is the continuation of the war in the Ukraine. Both Russia and NATO may be right in their justification for continuing to support the war, but both sides may end up just as dead as if they were wrong. Peace, anyone?