This is an unmoving ticker with totally illiquid options. Do you think I will be assigned? bid is below 10 ask is above 10. Obviously, I am short the 10 call options expiring today.
Whether you will be assigned or not depends on whether the call strike is going to be above or below the market price of the underlying. Has nothing to do with bid/ask. If the strike on the call that you shorted is below the current market price of the underlying, you may get assigned. If it's above, you won't be. What is the strike of the call that you shorted and what's the price of the underlying?
Not really correct. If a contract is .01 in the money, based on the closing price on the primary exchange, it will be automatically exercised. But the long holder can over ride this automatic exercise, so after hours movement matters. So you cant say you will/won't be assigned on a contract. This situation is a bit unique as the CRRCF is now trading OTC only https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=51337 So there just seems to be a last price from early in the day at 9.99. Not sure if last is used for automatic exercise purposes or not in this situation. I would guess most of the outstanding 10 calls will not be exercised.
Maybe I'm missing something. You claim that it has nothing to do with the bid/ask, but is based on market price? To me, market price IS the bid OR the ask OR the midpoint. What else could it possibly be? So it's 10 call. bid is 9.99, ask is 10.02, so what is the market price?