Without a doubt. If they drag it in to tomorrow (Wednesday) watch for a nice drop in the market and a spike in the VIX.
Then again this market has made monkeys out of everyone thinking analytically, and monkeys look like geniuses..
I think you misunderstood my question, I'm talking about a resolution. When they announce a resolution will that news cause the markets to sell off?
what news? there is no news. its a charade and everyone knows it. It's earning season now, so expect alot of sideways noise. Gonna be great to get these POLITICO FUCKS off my screen that's all I know.
Isn't it typically sell the rumor and buy the news? It happened last week and my puts did well. I positioned myself nicely after selling the puts with calls. Those cows haven't fully come back from pasture, but the milk is filling up. I still feel if they don't announce something by around noon (or afternoon) the markets may very well start to sell off as investors start to panic on the "fear" of default. The market has been nutty the last few weeks with all of this default biz and now a possible downgrade on the US credit rating. Earnings are doing their norm at least in the stocks that I follow.
If I remember correctly the last couple of resolutions to the self created crisises, if you can call it that, not only sent the market higher, but were the catalyst to send the market to all time highs. The interesting pattern Ive noticed is the market sells a little at first as the media first reports and fearmongers us about how the world is gonna end unless we resolve the crisis, then the market starts moving up on "hope" as the deadline approaches... to the point where the market is higher than where it was when the crisis was first being discussed! If I remember correctly the morning the government shutdown we were at about 1680 on the ES... so through 2 weeks of government shutdown, constant fearmongering about an imminent US default, bad economic data points (empire set and consumer confidence), lackluster earnings, big companies warning and guiding lower... the ES is currently at 1704 and looking ready to explode with less than 15 hours till supposed armageddon. There might be a very short term sell off on the news, but if theres some type of resolution I would have to think the market will quickly get back into low volume float up mode... this market is pretty much all driven on QE as it has been for a while.
The problem now is everything thinks it sells on the news since its not buckled at all even though wee at all time highs. manufactured crisis have been a good part of this bull mkt as it never falls with the crisis and skies even more with the deal