All I keep hearing is a V shaped recovery is actually happening, so how can there possibly be "widespread economic damage"??? Even one of the fed members said last week that the unemployment rate will be at 7% by end of 2020. Historical highs every single day on the nasdaq, people going back to work with the latest jobs numbers showing a huge positive last week. People getting billions in PPE loans and extending unemployment benefits. So why this pathetic news headline?? Real-time data is showing that the coronavirus is causing ‘widespread’ economic damage PUBLISHED FRI, JUL 10 20203:52 PM EDTUPDATED FRI, JUL 10 20205:16 PM EDT https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/rea...us-is-causing-widespread-economic-damage.html
Hospitals are getting maxed out down here. They are paying nurses $1000 per 12 hour shift to incentives them to take the risk.
My choice for disconnect of this week... 32% of U.S. households missed their July housing payments https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/32-percent-of-us-households-missed-their-july-housing-payments.html
I don't believe any of these headlines. Yea a handful are missing payments but the prediction for 20 million renters being evicted is just not true at all. And this is what they predict because of these missed housing payments: Around 20 million renters could face eviction by the end of September because of the pandemic —with the impact falling heavily on Black and Hispanic renters Sarah Al-Arshani Jul 7, 2020, 12:46 AM https://www.businessinsider.com/twenty-million-renters-facing-evictions-end-september-2020-7
A lot more well known businesses will be shutting their doors forever while others will be laying off thousands at their businesses just to stay afloat coming in August - October. The government may re-open their business but if the customers don't return...you gotta shut your door unless the government is going to give out another financial handout to the businesses to retain their employees. wrbtrader
Does anyone realize the snowball effect this has. Shutting their doors forever just doesnt end there...it follows a long path downward into every nook amd cranny of the economy.
Eviction possibility is a known. Conventional Wisdom. Besides eviction/foreclosure, what is or is likely to be affected by people not paying for their housing? Bars/restaurants/entertainment/travel are already up to their eyeballs in crap having little to do with no housing payments being made. Discretionary spending is conventional wisdom. In fact, it can be assumed that many of the 32% non-payment folks have/had their livelihoods in one of those industries. More conventional wisdom. The "paper" behind the assets is what the street is looking at. And thus far, the government and the feds actions have cushioned things well. On an off-topic... it chagrins me to learn that LakeWood Church/Joel Osteen, and Potters House/T.D. Jakes, both took PPP money. While not illegal or nefarious, I've lost much respect for these men and their preachings. With the 10's of 1000's each of these "celebrity" pastors have, the millions in donations, millions received through books, videos, and other related avenues, and the fact their churches are tax-exempt non-profits, plus with special IRS reporting, it just isn't right IMO...they can pay their employees out of their own funds and operations. Robert De Nero and Kanye (Im sure other celebs too) also received PPP: also wrong IMO. The fact that PPP contracts/documents did not state recipients would/could be disclosed to the public, and then after the fact (only certain) recipients were disclosed, is a problem too, imo.
The easy answer is far to many individuals and families have been, to varying degree, living beyond there means. Two months into the covid19 spread, and layoffs, it was evident that people were living from paycheck to paycheck, roughly 70% of the population, by various estimates. People were being interviewed on the news nightly, worried that they would lose their house because they couldn't make their mortgage payment, after just a month or two of income loss. It's not just housing either. I have a friend who works for one of the big 3 auto manufactures, whose job it is to monitor lease returns, and he travels extensively for work. When they lease vehicles and take them back upon expiration of the lease, a rigorous inspection is performed and the cars are then auctioned off. One of his regions in the middle of the country, has had a whopping 500% increase in inventory since the beginning of the year. The west coast region he's in charge of, has had an increase of 200% in inventory. I'm sure there are many who are delinquent on their auto loans also, not just their home loans. All a product of loose lending standards and easy money in an environment of increasing lack of affordability to the 70%. The only V-shaped recovery I'm seeing is in FAANG and the nasdaq comp. The only saving grace for the Dow and the S&P is that they contain components of FAANG, which is dragging them along for the ride.
Ignore the news. Irrelevant distraction. Focus on real actual data, as it becomes available. Even more so, interpret it correctly relative to the market's interpretation