Why would forward volatility increase going into earnings

Discussion in 'Options' started by tooriginal, Oct 10, 2023.

  1. I'm talking about the volatility after earnings week expiry. How could earnings itself cause this?

    Example, MSFT:
    upload_2023-10-10_20-52-15.png

    How is volatility distributed around earnings for MSFT?

    1 day realized vol (garman klass)

    upload_2023-10-10_20-51-8.png

    So realized vol happens all on earnings day (in this case). Why bid on forward vol then??
     
    Matt_ORATS likes this.
  2. Matt_ORATS

    Matt_ORATS Sponsor

    MSFT reports in 13 days.
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    In addition to offering traditional close-to-close realized volatility computations, we offer a second way to view historical volatility. Our proprietary historical volatilities are calculated from intraday open-high-low-close stock price market information and produce more accurate daily volatilities than traditional methods like close-to-close. orHv1d

    Forward Implied Volatility
    The forward volatility is a measure of the implied volatility over a period in the future extracted from IV at the beginning of that period and the end of that period. ORATS calculates forwards using the neighboring constant maturity implied volatilities 20, 30, 60, 90 and 180 days and the 30 to 90 day period.

    Related Data Point(s): fwd30_20, fwd60_30

    # Flat Forward Implied Volatility
    The flat forward volatility is a measure of the implied volatility over a period in the future using theoretical pricing relationships from IV at the beginning of that period and the end of that period. ORATS calculates flat forwards using the neighboring constant maturity implied volatilities 20, 30, 60, 90 and 180 days and the 30 to 90 day period, ie ffwd30_20

    [​IMG]
    https://gyazo.com/a35766c6a4d6cac2f69642e04131247f