Why New York has 14 times as many coronavirus deaths as California California is not in the clear yet, but its experience so far suggests early action is crucial. https://www.vox.com/2020/4/7/21205890/coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-new-york-california As the coronavirus started to spread in the US, California, not New York, might have seemed a likelier place for the pandemic to peak. California, the nation’s most populous state, was among the first to report cases. The first possible case of community transmission in the US was reported in California on February 26; the state reported its first death on March 4. New York lagged by days, reporting its first community transmission case on March 3 and first death on March 14. But as of April 13, the state has seen more than 23,000 cases and about 680 deaths — while New York state has more than 190,000 cases and about 9,400 death Experts say it’s too early to definitively say why California is faring so much better than New York. One factor, though, is that California simply acted more quickly than New York once it became clear that coronavirus was starting to spread in the US. If cases in California remain under control while those in New York soar — still a very big if — the experience could carry important lessons for how to deal with Covid-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. California’s experience likely reflects, at least in part, the value of quick, more proactive action — along the lines of what experts say is needed across the US, even in places that might not feel exposed to coronavirus right now. We “need to shift to a proactive mentality rather than reactive,” Krutika Kuppalli, an infectious diseases physician and emerging leader in biosecurity fellow at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told me. The reactive mentality “has been very much the way this outbreak has been from the beginning.” It’s also important, experts added, that California remains vigilant. With the huge economic harm caused by the coronavirus lockdowns, it can be tempting to ease off social distancing measures early. But to truly avoid a catastrophe like New York’s, experts say, California likely needs to stay at home as much as possible, at least until coronavirus cases appear to drop and proper testing and surveillance are in place to better track and mitigate new outbreak clusters. Los Angeles County officials said as much, warning about a potential peak in the next two weeks. “If you have enough supplies in your home, this would be the week to skip shopping altogether,” Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said on Monday. “Without everyone taking every possible precaution, our numbers can start skyrocketing.” How California has avoided an explosion of coronavirus cases There are other factors at play in the differences between the two states. One is the density of their largest cities: New York City is the densest city in the US (though San Francisco is second), and a lot of people packed closely together makes it easier for the coronavirus to spread. New York City also has higher rates of public transportation use than any other big city in the US, which could have helped spread the virus in public settings. And New York state has tested people at more than four times the rate of California, which could partly, though not mostly, explain the difference between both states’ reported cases and deaths. A big factor — perhaps the biggest — is also chance. “There’s the possibility that there were just more introductions of the virus in the East Coast, in the New York area,” Jeffrey Martin, an epidemiologist at the University of California San Francisco, told me. But California also acted more quickly than New York once it became clear that coronavirus was starting to spread in the US. The San Francisco Bay Area issued America’s first shelter-in-place order on March 16, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued a statewide stay-at-home order three days later. New York, meanwhile, didn’t issue a statewide stay-at-home order until March 22. (New York City didn’t implement its own order beforehand; Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he didn’t believe it would work if only one city did it.) And there’s evidence that social distancing was taken more seriously in some parts of California even before it was government-mandated. Restaurant data from OpenTable suggests that seated dining on March 1 was down 2 percent in New York City, but it was down 18 percent in San Francisco. (Though it was only down by 3 percent in Los Angeles, so not every place in California acted the same.) As March began in New York, officials were encouraging people to go about their business. On March 2, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio tweeted he was “encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives” and “get out on the town despite Coronavirus” — offering a movie recommendation for The Traitor. That did come before New York state confirmed a case of community transmission, but it also came after Cuomo, in a press conference with de Blasio, called community transmission “inevitable.” The same day, San Francisco Mayor London Breed, who had already declared a local state of emergency on February 25, warned the public to “prepare for possible disruption from an outbreak,” from dealing with school closures to caring for sick family members. California had confirmed a case of community transmission, in nearby Solano County, by then. New York officials seemed to take the threat more seriously in the coming days and weeks, particularly after community transmission and deaths were confirmed. The difference of a few weeks or days on public action and orders telling people to stay home may not seem like a huge deal. But it really is significant with the coronavirus, because the number of cases and deaths, especially early on in an outbreak, can double every few days if protective measures aren’t in place. “With this virus, days, and even hours, matter,” Jen Kates, director of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told me. By March 23, three weeks after Breed and de Blasio’s tweets, New York state reported around 5,000 new coronavirus cases a day. California reported fewer than 500. It seemed like California might have overreacted. It didn’t. One of the big lessons from California: “Anytime you are dealing with an outbreak, if it appears like you overreacted, then you probably did the right thing,” Kuppalli said. That may be especially true for the coronavirus, because it can be a stealthy spreader. People with coronavirus can infect others before they develop significant symptoms or without ever developing symptoms (although we don’t yet know how common this is). Especially during the early stages of a Covid-19 outbreak, that means a lot of people could be walking around with the coronavirus and infecting each other without knowing it. The silent nature of the coronavirus’s spread was exacerbated by America’s lack of testing. Insufficient testing made it harder for officials to confirm people had the coronavirus, isolate them, then track down and quarantine their contacts. That made it much harder to detect any outbreak in the US and eliminated any chance of stopping it in its tracks. (More at above url)
From friends in California I had heard many of them say back in January they were worried and were starting to use masks or avoid large public gatherings despite Pelosi's antics. Maybe pat history with other Asian flus made them more ready to adapt than "Fuck you" New Yorkers
Or... CA had it much earlier and we already had heard immunity. Or... CA has fewer at risk people that were likely to need hospitalization Or... Ca is not as densely packed. or... the ramps were completely wrong. Or it was all a factor... but we are healthier and have more sun and refused to stay inside at first... Immune system health may be vital to preventing hospitalization.
New York is the state that had 800 residents go to China when the Corona Virus was already full blown and widespread? How many of them brought back the Corona Virus? Also, De Blasio told residents to keep doing their thing. Ran the subways as usual. Cuomo objected to locking down New York when other states were ordering people to stay indoors? Extreme liberal elites too left New York to go to the Hamptons. Hampton residents objecting to it to no avail. Business as usual so not really surprising. They are just getting what they set themselves up to get. Too many selfish people. Eventually, Darwin was right.
Even if one takes their partisan hat off, New York does not come out looking good. It is a fact that the Left Coast states with Lefty governors have done a good job, all things considered. Washington state, for example, got dealt an early and ugly cluster with the nursing situation that exploded. They wrestled it down and also the University of Washington immediately created their own tests when it was discovered that the CDC tests and process were shit. Oregon has a loon for a governor but they seem to have things under control, again, all things considered. Ditto for California, although the "all things considered" includes a much larger population. So I reluctantly offer up all that acknowledgement. But New York? NO. Started out slow, progressed to infighting between Albany and NYC and is still stuck there. Calls for help were erratic, grossly overstated, and aimed in the wrong direction. Shooting at the federal government and intramural warfare as well. Then the feds/trumps send a hospital ship, ventilators, and army medical personnel and they decide they do not need them because they were "following the science." In other words, their choice of which of the ten models to follow. Use your head for christ's sake.
Wow, impressive Jem. first post that you are not rambling and actually have many correct assertion. I agree with everything except the herd immunity (it's not Heard but herd), it's a novel coronavirus.
You are right, many people in NYC have the "Fuck you" attitude. Also, they had other factors working against them even if they wanted to self-quarantine. Many of them don't own cars so they are forced to take public transportation. Not everyone there is utilizing grocery delivery for some strange reason?. Much of their day-to-day lives involves going to the local corner store since they might not be near a mega supermarket.
Herd immunity would require that over 60% of the population in California had recovered from COVID-19. The numbers are nowhere near 60% of the population in terms of the number of cases (even making assumptions for the addition of unreported mild cases). Bottom line - California and no other location has "herd" immunity at this time which would stop the wide-scale spread of COVID-19 across the population. The only way to "open up" America in the short term is to mirror South Korea and get proper large-scale testing & tracing in place as soon as possible.
The grocery thing should not be a problem, we all still go to the grocery and just follow social distancing, shoudl be easier in NYC as there is a grocery or market on every corner haha. Public transportation is a major virus spreader. I tihnk NYC should check with Japan, Taiwan and Korea where it is also too expensive to drive in to the city and many take public transportation to see how they addressed this. Could be a good learning exchange.