"Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread." Worth a read, not really politics except it relates to loudmouths and choirs (no churches Donald! or only quiet ones). It discusses how some "superspreaders" could explain a lot of the hard to pin down numbers. An enticing theory and could really affect policy. "That could explain some puzzling aspects of this pandemic, including why the virus did not take off around the world sooner after it emerged in China, and why some very early cases elsewhere—such as one in France in late December 2019, reported on 3 May—apparently failed to ignite a wider outbreak. If k is really 0.1, then most chains of infection die out by themselves and SARS-CoV-2 needs to be introduced undetected into a new country at least four times to have an even chance of establishing itself, Kucharski says. If the Chinese epidemic was a big fire that sent sparks flying around the world, most of the sparks simply fizzled out." https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...eEbtrx8_pISFdVaZQB4aJGoOgZtjYxk2gW9mEYbvp6qY4