Why are DJT puts more expensive than calls?

Discussion in 'Options' started by Actuarial_Fun, Oct 29, 2024.

  1. Today, as an example, if I look at the price of the call vertical at the Friday expiration for 50-54 at the price of 52 the price was 1.4 and the put vertical for the 50-54 was 2.6? How can that be? I'd think the call would be higher due to the positive expectation of interest + volatility driving the stock higher between now and Friday. Wouldn't basic BS suggest the call would be much higher due to the expectation of higher prices in DJT? It doesn't have dividends so what am I missing?

    I don't trade options, so I assume I'm missing something obvious here.
     
  2. mervyn

    mervyn

    generally speaking buying protections is more expensive, just like insurance.
     
    Actuarial_Fun and spy like this.
  3. Short borrow rate.

    You can derive implied borrow from the standard put-call parity equation.
    Or look up indicative rates on any of a variety of public web sites.
     
    nbbo, spy, taowave and 2 others like this.
  4. Ahh, got it. Thanks!
     
  5. spy

    spy

    Certainly that can't explain it all, although given the underlier it could be a big chunk.
     
  6. Q.E.D.

    Q.E.D.

    DJT has about the same estimated value of X (Twitter,) yet DJT has but a few million in revenue, a declining user base, and is losing money, vs > $ 1 billion in revenue last we knew in X.

    DJT value is purely based on some public investors whom think Trump will win, but IMO, it has been manipulated by several billionaires, basically trading with themselves, to indicate that Trump will win.

    The price of a stock is one of the best advertising media, so a Trump supporter could either contribute to his campaign, or push the stock higher.

    Should Trump lose, the stock could well open close to zero. But should he win, I still would think the stock will drop significantly, because:
    1. There is not a viable business;
    2. As Pres, it may be illegal for Trump to own a social media company;
    3. Trump is the largest shareholder, with billions in theory of stock, which he would likely dump at the first opportunity.

    In summary, there are no "natural" sellers of DJT currently, and only Trump supporters thinking the higher the stock goes, the more likely it is for Trump to win.

    Few would be willing to write puts knowing all above.
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2024
  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    As well des errr I mean poopy mentioned not too long ago fan boy Elon will buy Don The Con out if he should win, ...... no no really win not lie he did and whine for 4 more years that he did. In prison.
     
  8. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    why would he do that?

    DJT is a zero and everyone knows it. Elon can buy don directly to post on twitter and fuck all the DJT shareholders. It’s the Republican way.
     
  9. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Sure but by buying DJT that is exactly what he would be doing.

    Other shareholders benefit secondarily. It will kill Don but he'll get over it with tens of b's.
     
  10. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    Why would elon pay the other shareholders? He only wants don’s tweets. He pays don 2billion to exclusively tweet on twitter. DJT is another bankruptcy that don made a fortune on while leaving a lot of bag holders.
     
    #10     Oct 30, 2024