I've noticed in the last few months that despite crude and nat gas prices staying relatively low, certain o&g names have been making all time highs, or very close to it. most notable example is probably $NINE. Any good explanation for why this is?
Maybe they anticipate that oil prices will return to all time highs in the future. China opening. I ordered heating oil today ;-) But you are right, the discrepancy is remarkable.
Oil is a highly manipulated commodity these days. Extreme liberal media continues to lie about oil prices falling. Any oil price drop is related to Joe Biden releasing hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil from the US strategic petroleum reserve to sell to Europe, to keep prices artificially low. That is why OPEC does not take Joe Biden seriously. OPEC just cut 2,000,000 barrels in its oil production. Russia is set to cut 8% of its oil production. When the US strategic oil reserves have been bled down completely dry, this sham of artificially low oil prices and oil price caps of NATO will be completely exposed. China has already stated it is buying more Russian oil for its own use. I imagine India is also, buying more Russian oil for its own needs as oil prices start rising. Europe is left to chasing OPEC oil at full market prices. Our job as traders is merely to take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves. NINE I got into because of its stockchart and its breakout pattern. I do not listen to CNBC, Bloomberg or even talking hacks on TV without a clue.
Refiners currently squeeze double the margin out of everyone simply because they can. We are addicts and in bondage to fossil fuels for the time being. Plus there is a limited supply of refiners and they have hardly upgraded and maintained their facilities in decades. Every time there is a market upset and resource prices shoot up they shut down some of the facilities and do maintenance work, my only conclusion is that they realized that they can obfuscate charging more when the entire complex increases in price and those supply bottlenecks contribute through temporary closures to higher refined product pricing. Makes it easier for them to justify higher margins when customers have a hard time to understand where in that entire pipeline from upstream, midstream, to downstream price increases originate from. I have not looked much into the upstream players lately as I don't trade them.
%% I see plenty of good reasons for that/many of them profit@$50 oil/; debt cutting may have helped. May not make trends as good as 2022/ but could do better/ since trends work that way. Nat gas doesn't look low@ all to me , but you maybe right on that.CHK does look weak; i remember Carl Ichan cut a loss on that bear trending CHK.
Just a thought - as prices decline, marginal profit companies can flip into loss and appear quite shaky. Whereas companies with higher margins remain profitable, so investors in the sector shift to the companies with more stable profit margins. Just a guess, though.
Some of them are now paying dividends, which has attracted a wider number of investors. The dividends range from small to very large.
%% MOST of the weekly + daily/YTD trends are still up/XLE, except DEC. Thats fine with me when they put TSLA in SPY,qqq; +like James' wife Betty said/ she likes the smell of gasoline. Her family had a food + gas station when she was kid