As Kim Jong Un Tests South Korea, Both Choose Ukraine As New Cold War Front By Tom O'Connor On 17 November 2022 https://www.newsweek.com/kim-jong-u...oth-choose-ukraine-new-cold-war-front-1760156 Which Countries Are Helping Russia In The War Against Ukraine? As frictions between North and South Korea worsen against the backdrop of new geopolitical realities surrounding their shared East Asian peninsula, a new front has erupted half a world away in Eastern Europe, as U.S. officials reportedly see the two rivals backing opposite sides of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. The unresolved feud between the Koreas is the first and longest-running military front of the 20th-century Cold War. Now, experts and former officials with whom Newsweek spoke see the recent spike in tensions as an emerging theater of a new Cold War already manifesting in flashpoints across the globe. Earlier this month, the White House openly accused Pyongyang of sending a "significant" amount of artillery shells to Moscow under the guise of shipments to third countries in the Middle East and North Africa. About a week later, the Wall Street Journal cited unnamed U.S. officials saying that Washington was preparing to purchase up to 100,000 artillery shells from Seoul to be redirected to Kyiv. Both Koreas have since dismissed the reports, but their growing support for the two belligerents of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has already come to define their roles in the emerging international order. "For North Korea, it would be a great thing if the new cold war system comes into play, which means North Korea would be of great importance to China and Russia," Yang Wook, an assistant research fellow at the Seoul-based Asan Institute for Policy Studies and former policy advisor to South Korea's National Defense Ministry, told Newsweek. Communist titans China and the Soviet Union backed North Korea directly seven decades ago in its war against South Korea and a U.S.-led United Nations command, yet this level of support cooled over the years, especially after the fall of the USSR. Today, however, Pyongyang has found itself once again a focal point of great-power competition, and the Ukraine war has provided an opportunity to display its value as a partner on the global stage. Yang explained that North Korean weapons sales to Russia would constitute a "significant" boon for North Korea's "badly-needed foreign exports," especially at a time when the North Korean economy faced a "difficult situation due to the embargo under U.N. sanctions and the downturn caused by COVID-19." But he noted the implications are much greater than those of a simple arms transaction. "These sales can be the very beginning of a long-awaited resumption of Russo-North Korean military cooperation since the end of the Cold War," Yang said. Unlike China, which has channeled its growing wealth into new and innovative arms, North Korea has remained largely reliant on Soviet-style weapons systems without access to the latest advances. Yang said that "bilateral cooperation is essential" for Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un to bring his armed forces into the new era. "North Korea wants to prove to the world that it is also the key actor in the international order," he said, "so in order to draw more attention and concerns, North Korea escalates nuclear threats." A combination photo shows South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol (L) addressing the United Nations General Assembly on September 20, and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un at the podium during a lecture to the Central Cadres Training School of the Korean Workers' Party on October 17, alongside recent weapons tests conducted by South Korea on October 5 and North Korea between October 6 and 8. Michael M. Santiago/Getty; South Korea National Defense Ministry/Korean Central News Agency Three years after the collapse of a historic trilateral peace process between North Korea, South Korea and the U.S., Kim Jong Un has escalated the testing of nuclear-capable weapons, including large, far-reaching missiles and smaller, tactical platforms. One projectile fell south of the disputed inter-Korean maritime border earlier this month, the first such incident to occur since their 1950s war. In addition, he's pursued aerial and naval military movements near the border as the U.S. and South Korea intensified joint exercises, all while the world's gaze was fixed on Ukraine. Involvement in this conflict also fits into South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's vision for his nation, which he seeks to transform into a "global pivotal state." Yang notes that this ambitious agenda carries an attendant set of responsibilities, which "means that Korea should increase its engagement in the international community." And as South Korea sought support from its U.S. ally and other members of the international community in issues surrounding North Korea, Yang said that Seoul would first need to answer the call in stepping up on other global challenges such as the war in Ukraine. This approach carries risks, however. "Such a strategy could make Russia or China increasingly hostile to South Korea," Yang said, "which would adversely affect the Korean economy." Securing the supply and value chain, he argued, is "the so-called economic security, and it is one of the major national tasks of the new Yoon government." Yoon's perceived obligations to do more were also recognized by Soo Kim, a former Korea analyst for the CIA who today serves as a policy analyst at the California-based RAND Corporation. She too appreciated Seoul's desire to tread lightly in this endeavor. "Seoul also seems to want to approach this more cautiously in view of some sensitivities toward Russian, Chinese, or even North Korean reactions to South Korea sending military aid to Ukraine," Soo Kim told Newsweek. "Until recently, the ROK government had maintained its position on sending only non-lethal aid to Ukraine." Noting the South Korean National Defense Ministry's position that the howitzer rounds were sold under the assumption that the U.S. would be the end user, something the Pentagon has neither confirmed nor denied, she said Seoul may have found an arrangement to officially uphold this stance while still ultimately doing its part for Kyiv. "So perhaps Seoul, in an effort to avert criticism and potential backlash from neighbors in the region (e.g., China, Russia, North Korea), is seeking to find ways to indirectly support Ukraine via allies and partners," she said. Other powers have also opted to distance themselves from the conflict as reports emerged of their weapons system being used in Ukraine. Iranian officials have asserted that domestically produced loitering munitions, or "suicide drones," provided to Russia were sent with an understanding they would not be used in the conflict despite their now being launched openly against Ukrainian cities. Tehran's top foe, Israel, has also publicly refused to increase aid to Ukraine, even as reports surfaced of Israeli anti-drone systems being used by Kyiv alongside alleged intelligence cooperation between the two countries, despite the strains that have emerged between the two over Israel's official position. As for Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who have also denied direct military ties, Soo Kim said the two had a shared interest in expanding cooperation amid the war in Ukraine. "It's a window of opportunity for Russia, China, and North Korea to work together against the U.S., Ukraine, and other like-minded countries seeking to reduce Putin's success factor," she said. Ukrainian soldiers of an artillery unit fire on Russian positions outside Bakhmut on November 8, 2022, amid the ongoing war. Both sides of the conflict have devoted an extensive amount of materiel to the war, with no immediate signs of a peaceful resolution or military victory for either side in sight. BULENT KILIC/AFP/Getty Images John Lee, a Seoul-based writer and columnist who hosts the podcast "The Twitter Pundit," told Newsweek that, "from Seoul's point of view, the deal is purely a business transaction between two allied nations, and because the country buying the shells is the United States, there is also the element of alliance management." "We've technically been at war with North Korea since 1950," Lee pointed out. But the most "pressing concerns" he saw in the deteriorating inter-Korean dynamic are "missile and nuclear weapons tests and joint alliance military exercises." "The military exercises occurring on both sides of the DMZ are a dangerous-looking, intricate dance," Lee said. "All politics is local. Kim Jong Un needs to appear strong in the face of joint alliance military exercises. Yoon Suk-yeol doesn't wish to appear weak, either." Still, he emphasized that "both leaders know the consequences of losing control," and "even if both sides decide to respond proportionally to any attack from the other side, it will quickly lead to an all-out war." He said that "both sides understand this," and "it is something that both sides wish to avoid." As Yoon sought to shore up his own country's defense posture, U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has also sharpened its language toward Kim Jong Un in an apparent recognition of a growing problem on the Korean Peninsula. The Nuclear Posture Review released late last month by the Pentagon warned that "any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its Allies and partners is unacceptable and will result in the end of that regime." It added: "There is no scenario in which the Kim regime could employ nuclear weapons and survive." The tough rhetoric came as U.S. officials said they were enhancing intelligence gathering on Kim Jong Un in anticipation of a potential seventh nuclear test, which would mark his first in five years, the longest gap yet in the decade-long rule of a leader who saw such weapons as critical to his government's survival in the face of foreign threats. In previous years, these tests were unanimously condemned by the United Nations Security Council, including by China and Russia, which long backed international sanctions against North Korea as a result of its missile and nuclear weapons development. But this rare unity has since dissipated, as Beijing and Moscow now veto further punitive restrictions against Pyongyang, arguing that economic coercion has not resulted in any improvement in the situation, and diplomacy should instead be a priority. Youngjun Kim, a professor at Korea National Defense University and a member of the National Security Advisory Board for the South Korean president's office, said that, for North Korea, there was a "golden opportunity from the New Cold War situation." "Russia, as an old friend and an alternative partner of China, has been a good neighbor of North Korea," Youngjun Kim told Newsweek, "and they share high level military commanders visits and meetings." And he warned that, if this path continues, "the worst scenario and a game changer in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula is North Korean Army joining Russia-China combined military exercises," such as the Moscow-led Vostok drills last held in September. "During the Cold War and post-Cold War periods, North Korea never had any combined military exercise with the Chinese PLA and the Russian Army," he said. "But now it is on the table for the mid- and long-term. We have to watch and calculate this scenario." Faced with these shifting dynamics, Youngjun Kim said that "South Korea faces a dilemma" in both needing "to support Ukraine as a responsible middle-power democratic country" while at the same time needing to "manage its relationship with Russia for the North Korea issue and others." And noting South Korea's lingering denials of military support to Ukraine, he argued that Seoul may instead contribute to peacekeeping operations and economic development once the war is over. An undated handout image released by the South Korean National Defense Ministry on November 9 shows what is purported to be the retrieved debris of a North Korean ballistic missile that flew across the two rivals' de facto maritime border with South Korea a week earlier. The ministry said that the missile bore a strong resemblance to the Russian "SA-5" originally intended to be used as a surface-to-air missile system, but which is also potentially used for ground strikes, and that the system was currently being used in the war in Ukraine. But Yoon's next course of action may also depend on just how close Kim Jong Un gets to Putin in their burgeoning strategic alignment. Artyom Lukin, the deputy director for research at the Far Eastern Federal University School of Regional and International Studies in Vladivostok, told Newsweek that, so far, their mutual embrace has been "more about symbolism than substance." He did, however, point out some notable developments on the diplomatic track, including North Korea becoming the only U.N. member state to recognize a referendum held in September in four Russian military-held regions of Ukraine to annex them into the Russian Federation. Lukin explained how "there are various ways Moscow can reward North Korea for its diplomatic support," including becoming even "less stringent in enforcing international sanctions imposed on the DPRK for its nuclear and missile program," and deciding to "provide the North with enlarged packages of food assistance" as its economic woes routinely acknowledged even by Kim Jong Un himself persist. He also argued that any increase in the two Koreas' roles in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could have ramifications back home as well. "An indirect involvement of the two Korean states in the Ukraine war may result in more polarization in Northeast Asia and on the Korean peninsula," Lukin said. "Russia, as Vladimir Putin already warned, will certainly be antagonized by South Korean actions and will try to find ways to pay back." Dmitry Stefanovich, a Russian International Affairs Council expert who also serves as a research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) Center for International Security in Moscow, shared Lukin's skepticism of a growing military relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang at this stage. At the same time, he noted that Putin just recently warned that any South Korean military assistance to Ukraine "might lead to actual military-technical cooperation between Russia and North Korea, which, obviously, will change the dynamics in a very serious manner, both regionally and globally." "I think the most important message here is that Russia has no interest left on having some sort of 'selective cooperation' with the U.S., including on new sanctions against against the DPRK," Stefanovich told Newsweek. "Russia and China developed a framework on de-escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula relatively long ago, but so far there is little progress there, actually more of the opposite." And while Stefanovich noted that "relations between Moscow and Seoul have been relatively healthy so far," he warned that "we can expect anything these days." "As for the possibility of an inter-Korean proxy war on Ukrainian territory — well, this is a yet another dimension of the tragedy unfolding," Stefanovich said. "Hopefully, in the future," he added, "less countries would be so ready to provide themselves as a battleground for the conflict of actually global scale."
How big and how far can North Korea's massive Hwasong-17 missile go? Posted 4 hours ago https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-20/north-korea-hwasong-17-missile-explainer/101675780 North Korea broadcasts video of 'monster missile' launch(KRT) North Korea said it has test fired its massive new Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), in what may be the first successful launch of the system after analysts raised doubts about earlier claims. But what exactly do we know about the Hwasong-17 and has it been seen before? Here's what we know. How big is the missile? The Hwasong-17 is nuclear-armed North Korea's biggest missile yet, and is the largest road-mobile, liquid-fuelled ICBM in the world. Its diameter is estimated to be between 2.4 and 2.5 metres, and its total mass, when fully fuelled, is likely somewhere between 80,000 and 110,000 kilograms, according to 38 North, a US-based programme that monitors North Korea. It's estimated to be between 24 and 26 metres tall. Unlike North Korea's earlier ICBMs, the Hwasong-17 is launched directly from a transporter, erector, launcher vehicle with 11 axles, photos by state media showed. How far can it fly? General view of what state media reports is the "Hwasong-17" intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).(Reuters: KCNA) The missile launched on Friday flew nearly 1,000 kilometres for about 69 minutes, state news agency KCNA reported. Japanese Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada said the weapon could travel as far as 15,000 kilometres, enough to reach the continental United States. Has it been previously launched? North Korea previously claimed it had successfully launched a Hwasong-17 for the first time on March 24. At the time state media said it flew for 67.5 minutes to a range of 1,090 kilometres. After that launch, however, analysts and intelligence officials in South Korean and the United States had concluded that the North had actually launched a Hwasong-15, which was first tested in 2017. Have their been previous sightings? North Korea first unveiled the previously unseen ICBM at a pre-dawn military parade in October 2020, with analysts noting it appeared "considerably larger" than the Hwasong-15. It was displayed a second time at a defence exhibition in Pyongyang in October 2021. Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missiles take part in a night time military parade to mark the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army(Supplied: Reuters via KCNA) After examining photos of the exhibit, analysts concluded the official designation of this large ICBM is most likely "Hwasong-17", not Hwasong-16. Officials in Seoul and Washington said launches on February 27 and March 5 involved the Hwasong-17 ICBM system, though they did not test its full capability or range. Some analysts say those tests may have involved only one stage. What is the design? The Hwasong-17's size has prompted analysts to speculate that it will be designed to carry multiple warheads and decoys to better penetrate missile defences. Some observers said the satellite technology North Korea claimed to have tested in the February 27 and March 5 launches could also be used for a multiple independently re-entry vehicle (MIRV) system, potentially allowing a single missile to drop nuclear warheads on different targets. North Korea has made preparations to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017, South Korea and the United States say, and officials say new tests could help develop warheads for MIRV systems. Reuters
Maybe it was to celebrate "Take Your Daughter to Nuke Day?" https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/19/kim...world-at-latest-ballistic-missile-launch.html
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un oversees a missile launch at an undisclosed location in North Korea, in this undated photo released on October 10, 2022 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). (File photo: Reuters) Kim Jong Un says North Korea’s ultimate goal is for world’s strongest nuclear force Reuters, Seoul Published: 27 November 2022 https://english.alarabiya.net/News/...e-goal-is-for-world-s-strongest-nuclear-force North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country’s ultimate goal is to possess the world’s most powerful nuclear force, as he promoted dozens of military officers involved in the recent launch of North Korea’s largest ballistic missile, state media reported on Sunday. The announcement comes after Kim inspected a test of the country’s new Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and pledged to counter US nuclear threats with nuclear weapons on November 18. Building the nuclear force is for reliably protecting the dignity and sovereignty of the state and the people, and “its ultimate goal is to possess the world’s most powerful strategic force, the absolute force unprecedented in the century,” Kim said in the order promoting the officers. He called the Hwasong-17 the “world’s strongest strategic weapon” and said it demonstrated North Korea's resolve and ability to eventually build the world’s strongest army. North Korean scientists have made a “wonderful leap forward in the development of the technology of mounting nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles,” Kim said, without elaborating. Posing for photos with the scientists, engineers, military officials and others involved in the test, Kim said he expects them to continue to expand and strengthen the country’s nuclear deterrent at an extraordinarily rapid pace. Those workers issued an oath of allegiance and faith to the ruling party, vowing to defend the “absolute authority” of the party and Kim, and vowing that “our missiles will fly vigorously only in the direction indicated” by him. They said Kim had “carefully taught us one by one” during the development of the Hwasong-17. Capable of reaching the US mainland, the missile launch prompted the United States to call for a United Nations Security Council presidential statement to hold North Korea accountable for its missile tests, which are banned by Security Council resolutions. North Korea’s powerful Standing Committee of the Supreme People's Assembly awarded the Hwasong-17 missile the title of “DPRK Hero and Gold Star Medal and Order of National Flag 1st Class,” KCNA reported in another statement, using the initials of the country’s official name, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “(The missile) clearly proved before the world that the DPRK is a full-fledged nuclear power capable of standing against the nuclear supremacy of the US imperialists and fully demonstrated its might as the most powerful ICBM state,” KCNA said. The test fire demonstrated that North Korea will react in kind to “the enemy’s nuke and full-frontal confrontation,” the report said.
South Korea salvages North Korea’s spy satellite in intelligence win In June, South Korea released photos of a 14.5m portion of the North Korean rocket. PHOTO: REUTERS SEOUL – South Korea salvaged a failed North Korean spy satellite from the sea, giving it a rare direct look at Pyongyang’s capabilities even as it concluded that the technology had little military value. Officials on Wednesday said they concluded a 36-day salvage operation to search for the rocket. It was launched on May 31 but failed a few minutes into flight and crashed in international waters in the Yellow Sea. South Korea then deployed ships, aircraft and deep-sea divers to search for the rocket. The salvage operation will likely end up being the most significant by the outside world on a North Korean rocket. “Through this operation, major parts of North Korea’s space launch vehicle and satellite were recovered, and after careful analysis by American and South Korean experts, it was determined that they had no military efficacy as reconnaissance satellites,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement. Experts said the recovered pieces still could provide information about the secretive state’s rocket programme and give clues about possible sanction violations in the procurement of its components. The first stage of the rocket North Korea dubbed “Chollima-1”, in reference to a mythological winged horse, had a successful burn and is suspected to have used liquid-fuel engines, weapons experts said. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s regime has also deployed those engines in its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear warheads to the United States mainland. The rocket failed when the second-stage engine did not ignite, North Korea said. The third stage contained the spy satellite and its recovery likely provided information on the resolution of a camera that it carried. In June, South Korea released photos of a 14.5m portion of the North Korean rocket. The two pieces it recovered in waters about 70m deep were from the second stage and likely contained the engine that did not fire, weapons experts said. Mr David Schmerler, a senior research associate at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies, said if North Korea can launch and place an imaging satellite into orbit, it would likely use those images to refine its targeting list. North Korea has said it wants to use spy satellites to keep an eye on military facilities in South Korea and Japan, where the US positions tens of thousands of military personnel. North Korea is barred by United Nations Security Council resolutions from conducting ballistic missile tests, but Pyongyang has long claimed it is entitled to a civilian space program for satellite launches. The US and its partners have warned that technology derived from North Korea’s space programme could be used to advance its ballistic missiles. Under Mr Kim, North Korea has been increasing the domestic technology and components that go into its newest array of missiles. The country still needs the outside world for certain materials and components, which it is barred from acquiring under global sanctions to punish it for its pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver warheads. BLOOMBERG
North Korea’s depleted coffers are filling up again thanks to Russia Russian and North Korean flags fly above a street in Vladivostok, Russia, in 2019. As Pyongyang prepares to mark the Korean War's 70th anniversary, Kim Jong Un's regime has Russia to thank. | REUTERS By Jon Herskovitz and Sangmi Cha Bloomberg Jul 26, 2023 People visit the statues of the late North Korean leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il on the 29th anniversary of Kim Il Sung's death, in Pyongyang on July 8. Photographer: Kim Won Jin/AFP/Getty Images Reports of new types of sugar in the local markets. Satellite imagery of trains crossing borders. Cargo ships with their transponders off. When assessing North Korea’s opaque economy, rather than hard statistics, it’s these sorts of indicators experts pore over. And all are pointing to one conclusion: Kim Jong Un has found fresh ways to fill his depleted coffers. This money is enabling him to ignore financial incentives designed to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table, and press ahead with building his nuclear arsenal. His grandfather, state founder Kim Il Sung, took the reins of the country with Soviet support. Now, as North Korea prepares to mark the 70th anniversary of the armistice that ended the Korean War on July 27, 1953, it’s once again Russia the regime must thank. Russia has resumed sending oil to North Korea for the first time since 2020, the United Nations said last month. That follows an earlier restart of grain shipments. While it’s impossible to know what is going in the other direction, both the U.S. government and independent analysts have one main thesis: munitions from North Korea’s vast stockpiles. These interventions, of course, aren’t sufficient to restore a tattered, isolated economy to full health. Yet together with the reopening of trade links with China and other sources of income like cybercrime, the assistance from Russia is ensuring the economy remains stable enough to function, enabling Kim to continue defying the international community. "North Korea always manages to find a way to survive,” said Rachel Minyoung Lee, a regional issues manager at the Vienna-based Open Nuclear Network who worked as an analyst for the CIA’s Open Source Enterprise for almost two decades. "There is no indication that it would return to nuclear talks anytime soon.” Russia and China are showing their support for Kim by sending high-profile delegations to North Korea to mark the anniversary — the first such visits by foreign envoys since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Russian group arrived Tuesday night and received a welcome from top cadres. Munitions math Pyongyang, which has been banned from arms sales for about 15 years, rejects accusations it is supplying Russia. Yet the White House in December said it had evidence North Korea completed an initial arms shipment to the Wagner Group for use in Ukraine that included infantry rockets and missiles. One item that North Korea has and Russia likely wants is 152 mm artillery shells. These are interoperable with the Soviet-era weaponry that’s been pushed back into service in Ukraine. The Kremlin’s war machine has been burning through thousands daily, according to the Jamestown Foundation research group, and has been scrambling for supplies as the conflict continues. North Korea possesses untold stores of munitions that could run into millions of rounds for an arsenal that has for decades held Seoul under the threat of devastation. Shoigu is welcomed at an airport in Pyongyang on Tuesday. | KCNA / via REUTERS North Korea would likely jump at the chance to offload some of its stockpile at a hefty price, said weapons expert Joost Oliemans, who co-authored the book "The Armed Forces of North Korea." Exactly how much they’d get would be down to their ability to negotiate. For example, if North Korea sold shells at $1,000 each, selling 250,000 would be equal to about 1% of its GDP, according to Bloomberg News calculations. That’s a conservative estimate because high demand has driven up prices, with the 155 mm shells used by NATO forces priced at about $3,000 each. Trade signals Given that both North Korea and Russia are subject to U.N. sanctions, both seek to conceal exactly how much trade is going on. But there are numerous signs that activity is picking up. In late 2022, the two countries restored a rail link that had been suspended for nearly three years, according to satellite images including those from November that show a train crossing from Russia into North Korea and stopping at a freight handling station. Kang Mi-jin, a North Korean defector who now runs a company in South Korea that watches the economy of her former home, says that her contacts report that Russian sugar has made its way into markets in recent months. It’s been warily received since it’s coarser and a darker color than what North Koreans are used to, Kang said. There are also indications of increased activity with China after the two countries reopened their main rail link last year that had been closed since the pandemic. Traffic between the Chinese border city of Dandong and North Korea’s nearby city of Sinuiju can be watched on the streets in China. The Daily NK website, part of a group of not-for-profit agencies affiliated with the South Korean Unification Ministry, said its sources on the ground have seen the length of freight trains increasing. It reports that foodstuffs and building materials are among the items making their way into North Korea. What is nearly impossible to see is activity in a pipeline between the two cities that was exempt from sanctions and could be supplying as much as 750,000 tons (5.5 million barrels) of oil annually, according to a report from specialists David von Hippel and Peter Hayes. Other signs Among the few items North Korea tries to sell abroad are commodities it can mine at home and then trade in ways that evade interception. At its main international seaport of Nampo, the amount of shipping detectable by the outside world reached 100 vessels in the first half of this year and was on pace to triple the traffic the port had seen during the pandemic years, data from IHS Markit showed. In a further sign that North Korea has money to spend, a United Nations Security Panel of Experts report said in March that deliveries of refined petroleum products in 2022 again exceeded the 500,000 barrel yearly amount of imports allowed under sanctions. This year, the panel said, North Korea has also acquired six more cargo vessels in a violation of sanctions. Four of these ships were among a dozen that sailed to destinations for iron and coal in China over the past month in a bid to sell commodities mined in North Korea for hard currency, NK News reported. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who is leading a visiting delegation to North Korea, is welcomed at an airport in Pyongyang on Tuesday. | KCNA / via REUTERS Data from Bloomberg shows that five of the vessels identified by the U.N. have docked at least once in China since March. Vessel data showed multiple trips to a grain elevator berth near Dalian. North Korea has also continued to dodge sanctions through the ship-to-ship transfer of commodities on the high seas often done in darkness with transponders turned off to avoid detection, the U.N. panel said. Another likely source of income is cybercrime. Both the U.S. and South Korea have accused Kim’s regime of deploying hackers to various corners of the world to fund its weapons programs. They say these in-demand workers can make as much as $300,000 a year abroad — often remotely through freelance platforms with falsified or stolen identification — and can assist in enabling cyber attacks and cryptocurrency thefts that helped North Korea earn an estimated $1.7 billion in 2022. Putting it together North Korea releases no official statistics on the size of its overall economy. With so much off the books and deliberately obscured, it is difficult to make overall assessments about the amount of economic activity. What’s more, the country is still suffering from the pandemic, and is one of the few countries in the world not to have started a vaccination program, said Anwita Basu, an expert on North Korea and head of Europe country risk at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company. Still, signs of a resumption of trade with China, historically North Korea’s biggest trading partner, means Fitch estimate the economy returned to growth after two full years of contraction, though significant uncertainties remain. "The outlook for the North Korean economy is murky,” Basu said. Still, "we anticipate that the economy will remain sufficiently stable to enable Kim Jong Un to remain in power.” Commanders of the Korean People's Army visit the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang on Tuesday to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the Korean War armistice. | KCNA / via REUTERS However, conditions on the ground in North Korea remain bleak for the majority of the population. The World Food Program, which had been on the ground in North Korea for years until the pandemic, estimates that 40% of the population is undernourished. Flooding over the past few years has devastated farm land and wiped out crops, while Kim’s decision to shut the borders cut off a flow of foodstuffs that made their way to markets. The WFP is no longer distributing food, raising worries about a possible return to the famine of the late 1990s that some estimates said killed as many as 3.5 million people over a number of years. Self-reliance doctrine Kim’s state propaganda machine still leans heavily on a self-reliance doctrine forged by his grandfather calling on its citizens to help one another in the face of what it sees as the hostile intents of the U.S. to cripple its economy and topple its rulers. Even as investment in big-ticket items such as power plant construction have faltered after sanctions were tightened in 2017 to halt the import of machinery, Kim’s government has stepped up other symbolic projects. The state-run Korean Central News Agency has mentioned "housing construction” about 200 times in about the past two years, according to a database search. Kim "has become the great pioneer and creator for realizing the socialist ideal to devote himself to building the people’s paradise as soon as possible,” KCNA said when Kim attended a ground-breaking ceremony in February punctuated by fireworks and cheers from the masses for a project to build 10,000 new apartments in Pyongyang. These costs, though, pale compared to the money spent on armaments. Kim’s regime spent an estimated $400 million to $650 million to build and test the 33 missiles it fired off in the first half of 2022, data compiled by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, a government-affiliated military research center, show. It ended up shooting off more than 70 that year, meaning it could have spent more than $1 billion for missiles tested. That is equal to about 4% of its $25 billion economy. The U.S., South Korea and Japan have said Kim would be better off using the money spent on missiles to feed his people. But Kim’s defiance of the international community has gained him some measure of security against the risk of any U.S. action. His weapons program has evolved to a point that he could have enough in his arsenal to deliver a credible nuclear strike on South Korea and Japan — the two Asian nations that host tens of thousands of U.S. military personnel. And he is showing no signs of slowing down. Following 2022’s record-breaking series of tests, Kim has again ramped up his military program this year. Just this month, he tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile designed to strike the U.S. mainland. "Russia’s war in Ukraine is likely emboldening Kim Jong Un to behave more aggressively,’’ said Duyeon Kim, an adjunct senior fellow in Seoul at the Center for a New American Security. "China and Russia have both failed to fulfill their sanctions obligations under U.N. Security Council resolutions, which is why sanctions have not been working properly and they’re enabling Pyongyang to continue with its nuclear weapons development and provocative behavior.’’
Give and Take: the Purpose of Shoigu's Visit to North Korea, It's Not Just About Ammunition July 27, 2023 https://en.defence-ua.com/news/give...korea_its_not_just_about_ammunition-7446.html Russian minister of defense Sergei Shoigu arrives in North Korea / Photo source: KCNA Russia's defense minister would not go to North Korea with quite a lengthy visit just to ask for more ammunition, especially if the russians are in dire need of particular weapons they lose daily. Minister of defense of the russian federation Sergei Shoigu has arrived in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The official pretext of the visit is to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Korean Armistice Agreement signed on July 27th, 1953. The visit lasts for three days, July 25-27 with a traditionally big military parade on the last day. Taking into account there were not many trips by russian officials to Pyongyang overall – only a single visit by president Putin in 2000, while for Shoigu this is his first – the occasion bears a certain level of significance. Shoigu takes part in festive ceremonies in North Korea / Open source photo The main question is, what exactly Shoigu came for and what he brought to North Korea to offer. This country remains one of the few actively supporting the Kremlin in its war of aggression against Ukraine and was caught red-handed supplying weapons to russia midst of this war. At the same time, North Korea has seen quick progress in missile armament projects recently. For example, Pyongyang has been very vigorously and apparently successfully testing its new Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile which was created in a relatively short time. Wouldn't be out of place to note how back in Soviet times Kremlin was helping the Korean nuclear program as well. Hwasong-17 ICBM / Photo source: KCNA It's not just weapons (including ready-made solutions) russia's helping DPRK with. There is also broader financial support. In 2014, Moscow forgave 90% of Pyongyang's debt. Grain, oil, and other products flow into North Korea from russia without restrictions. But more important is what Kremlins wants back for all its "investment", and that is what Shoigu's visit is for. The need for weapons is the first thing that comes to mind, and North Korea already partially had it covered by providing ammunition. DPRK is a huge artillery arsenal, it has over 21,600 howitzers of calibers 122mm, 152mm, 170mm, and 5,000 multiple rocket launch systems on top, mostly in 122mm caliber, standard for BM-21 Grad launchers. North Korean artillery on the military parade in Pyongyang on April 25, 2022 / Photo source: KCNA With that many artillery systems, a proper quantity of shells is on par. North Korea has already sold 250,000 rounds. Given the estimated price of USD 1,000 per shell, it amounts to almost 1% of the whole country's GDP of income. And there should be heaps of artillery rounds left on top of that, although the exact numbers and their condition is unknown, as most of the ammunition was produced in the times of the USSR. But just expanding the current supplies doesn't seem like a good reason for Shoigu to pay a visit, all the more because North Korea itself has a big interest in selling out the aging arsenals. On the other hand, acquiring whole weapons might need a visit with a few days' stay to show the product to the customer. It becomes especially relevant due to the rapid decrease in artillery systems russian army suffers in Ukraine. For instance, since the early days of summer this year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have destroyed 583 pieces of russian artillery already, according to the data provided by Ukraine's General Staff. This issue calls for Kremlin to act. In addition, it's important to consider the weariness of barrels, as it has a significant impact on the real number of combat-capable howitzers. That's why Defense Express assumes, the purpose of the russian defense minister's visit to North Korea is not only to negotiate ammunition but a provision of artillery systems as well. The transfer of those, though, would be not as easy to disguise as it was with the shells. Furthermore, russia might be interested not in artillery alone but in any other piece of armament for land forces, too. In return, Kremlin can offer more cooperation in developing missile and nuclear arms projects, handing over entire technologies or various goods: oil, grain, etc.
South Korean POWs abandoned for decades in North Korea Published 1 day ago https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66312530 Lee Dae-bong waded across a river into China to escape North Korea after half a century as a prisoner of war Image caption, By Jean Mackenzie Seoul correspondent At the age of 92, Lee Dae-bong doesn't particularly enjoy getting out of bed. He has lived enough of a life. As he readjusts his pyjamas, his left hand reveals three missing fingers. His injury is not the result of the war he fought, but the subsequent 54 years he was forced to toil in a North Korean coal mine. The former South Korean soldier was captured during the Korean War by Chinese troops, who were fighting alongside North Korea. It was 28 June 1953; the first day of the battle of Arrowhead Hill, and less than a month before the armistice brought an end to three brutal years of fighting. All, bar three of his platoon, were killed that day. As he and the two other survivors were loaded onto a cargo train, he assumed they were heading home to South Korea, but the train veered North, to the Aoji coal mine, where he would spend most of his life. His family was told he had been killed in combat. Between 50,000 and 80,000 South Korean soldiers were held captive in North Korea after the Korean War ended with an armistice agreement that divided the peninsula. A peace treaty never followed, and the prisoners have never been returned. Mr Lee was one of the very few who managed to plot his own escape. Image source, Getty Images Image caption, Just 80 of the tens of thousands of South Korean soldiers held in the North made it back home Over the decades, despite some skirmishes, the armistice has largely held, making this the longest ceasefire in history. But the absence of peace has wrought havoc on Mr Lee's life, along with his fellow prisoners and their families. As North and South Korea mark 70 years since the signing of the agreement, their stories are a reminder the Korean War is not over. For the first years of his captivity Mr Lee was forced to work a week in the coal mine followed by a week studying North Korean ideology, until, in 1956, he and the other prisoners were stripped of their military titles and told to marry and assimilate into society. But they, and their new families, were designated as outcasts and placed at the very bottom of North Korea's strict social caste system. Digging for coal, day after day, for more than 50 years was excruciating work, but it was the spectre of injury and death that Mr Lee says was the hardest to bear. One day his hand got caught in a coal processing machine, but the loss of his fingers seemed minor, as he witnessed various friends be killed in a series of methane gas explosions. "We gave our entire youths to that coal mine, waiting for and fearing a meaningless death at any moment," he says. "I missed home so much, especially my family. Even animals, when they are nearing death, go back to their caves." Lee Dae-bong was forced to carry out hard manual labour in North Korea's coal mines and lost three fingers in the process Image caption, As North and South Korea mark the prevailing peace on the peninsula, many of the prisoners of war and their families blame both sides for their suffering. Various South Korean presidents have met North Korean leaders, but securing their return was low on the agenda. The North, after releasing just 8,000 prisoners, has refused to acknowledge that any more exist. At a summit in 2000 between the then-South Korean president, Kim Dae-jung, and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, the issue was not even mentioned. This is the moment Lee Dae-bong says he lost all hope, realising the only way he would ever be coming home was if he were to escape. Three days after his only son was killed in a mine accident, with his wife long dead, Mr Lee embarked on his journey. Now aged 77, he secretly waded across the river into China, the water up to his neck. He is one of 80 prisoners to have escaped and made it home to South Korea, with only 13 of the escapees still alive. The remaining tens of thousands of prisoners were left to perish in the mines. Few, if any, are still alive - though their children remain. BBC South Korea exists today thanks to people like my father, but our suffering has still not been solved. Chae Ah-in Daughter of South Korean prisoner of war Chae Ah-in was six years old when her father was killed in a gas explosion at a North Korean mine. Soon her older sisters were sent to work in his place. Still at school, she was relentlessly beaten and bullied. She could not understand why her family was cursed. Only later, when she overheard her sisters whispering, did she learn her father had been a South Korean soldier. "For a long time I hated him," she recounts, from her home in the outskirts of Seoul, where she arrived in 2010. "I blamed him so much for making us all suffer." At the age of 28, Ms Chae too chose to escape her painful existence in North Korea, crossing first into China, where she lived for 10 years. It wasn't until she arrived in South Korea that she realised her father was a hero. "Now I respect him and try so hard to remember him," she says. "I feel different to other North Korean defectors, because I am the proud daughter of a South Korean war veteran." But Ms Chae is not recognised by the South Korean government as the daughter of a veteran who gave his life for his country. The prisoners of war (POWs) who never made it home are marked as missing, assumed dead, and are not honoured as war heroes. "South Korea exists today thanks to people like my father, but our suffering has still not been solved," she says, wanting them both to be recognised for who they are. Image source, Getty Images Image caption, Prisoners' relatives have for years demanded their loved ones be repatriated and for them to be recognised as war heroes Around 280 children of POWs have managed to escape and make it to South Korea. Another is Son Myeong-hwa, chairperson of the Korean War POW Family Association, who is fighting on their behalf. "The children of the POWs in North Korea suffered from the pain of guilt by association, and yet here in South Korea we are not acknowledged. We want to be given the same respect that the families of other fallen veterans receive," she said. The South Korean government told us it is not planning to change its classification of veterans. By the time Lee Dae-bong arrived home, already an old man, his parents and brother had died. Although South Korea had changed beyond recognition, his younger sister took him to stand on the soil of his old town. Mr Lee recalls how his dying friends in North Korea would beg their children to one day bury them in their hometowns. Their wishes have yet to be granted. And the absence of peace between North and South Korea has left these families struggling to find peace of their own. Both Lee Dae-bong and Chae Ah-in still dream of the North and South being reunified. Ms Chae wants to bring her father's body to rest in South Korea. For North and South Korea, peace and reunification is still the officially stated goal. But 70 years since the armistice, this dream feels ever more distant.