We all know that the Fed is printing USD120B+/month in QE. I've been harping on that point for over a year--don't forget it! Anyway, Uncle Jerome says they won't stop until "Employment" and about "A dozen other factors" point to an improvement in the economy. 1. Specifically, what is the key metric for employment? 2. Generally, what other metrics are they looking at? If we can nail down these stats, then we'll all see first morning light of the dawning age of the age of Aquarius... Thanks, Keith
None of that matters ( and a lot of other noise these days as well ). What matters is the economic growth ( eg GDP% gain ), corporate earnings, and interest rates. All three are major positives now. On the negative side are any Covid variant issues and to what extent the good side is priced in already. Also, momentum matters. What I can say is in the areas I trade, corporate earnings are really, really good and looking to improve because commodity prices are significantly higher now. Interest rates at the pace indicated by the US Fed remain a positive ( we would need more like 3% to matter in a meaningful way imo beyond random fear mongering short term market moves ). And US IT stocks are gaining interest again which helps ensure broader market momentum remains flat to positive. Asian market strength may also help there may be value there now. Guess we'll see but this year reminds me of 2019 in how people perceive it. There may be corrective phases but good luck timing them.
Everything is fine until and unless it is affecting our GDP in a positive way and helping in the recovery of the economy.
For all the important data refer to the economic calendar available on various websites such as Fxstreet. Other than that you can refer to the Beige books.