Where are we in this market?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Scataphagos, Mar 31, 2025.

  1. So far, this appears to be just a garden variety correction.

    It won't get serious until it takes out on the downside, the "prior 4th wave of lesser degree".

    IOW... if you're nervous about being down 10-20%, so far it's just noise.

    A few of the "big boys" have projected the bottom of this move to be 5200-5300 in the SP... and that's within the norms of a "correction on the way up".

    Just in case it turns out to be bigger... best set appropriate stops.

    FWIW...
     
  2. S2007S

    S2007S



    That will be a short term bottom until we slice through 5000!!!


    Just sold a naked call on UVIX. Figure we get a small bump and UVIX tanks 10%
     
  3. If the market has begun a genuine bear (later it will be acknowledged and likely they will say it's because of Trump's tariffs), the bottom is waaaaay down from here because of the current overvaluation of stock prices, it's got further to go than most can conceive. When the "real collapse" happens, it will trap many... not saying it is right now, but it could be.

    FWIW..
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2025
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  4. 2rosy

    2rosy

    unchanged on 6 month timeframe.
     
  5. Tokenz

    Tokenz

    It doesn't look good. Canada will respond to Tariffs tomorrow, Trump is threatening to bomb Iran. I can easily see another month of unhappy downside action
     
  6. 2rosy

    2rosy

  7. comagnum

    comagnum

    So far, the swing low has been on par with the last one, the waterfall selloff after this rally makes it seem like a dead cat bounce. Who knows where she goes?


    upload_2025-3-31_4-51-58.png
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2025
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  8. IMV, the "buy the dip" notion is still valid here... but I'd like to see something that I think might qualify as a "capitulation low" to mark the end of the decline. So far, I can't see that. So... I'm still thinking "lower".

    FWIW...
     
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  9. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    I bought the dip and sold the reversal.
    There’s no need to predict.
    We’re going down.

    52W highs - lows is still negative (since Feb 18)
     
  10. I'm a day trader. I could care less what the future looks like beyond the present day moment timeframe game clock

    But the same principles loosely generally applies to longer time frames. That being said, don't guess and gamble.

    Establish your variables and elements and perspective hypothesis.. and wait , watch and see... When to strike like a cobra anaconda after confirmations and checks. Opening the trade and closing the trade
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2025
    #10     Mar 31, 2025
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