Not talking about red news outcomes, but when you can expect a clean move without (bigger or significant) drawdowns in between this move. Like saying +100 pips but only with -20 pips max. drawdown before this move ends ? When are the chances higher on such moves, in the Spot Forex space I am primarily asking. But also SP500 Futures are welcomed, if you have some knowledge here.
News release can provide catalyst for good one sided moves. Otherwise it happens here and there … price moves 30 points or more without much back and forth then pullback 10 to 15 points. Usually you have 2 or 3 waves like these. Price is at new highs in no time. Then you have a deeper pullback. Price moves back and forth. Struggles to make new highs. Obviously it’s getting extended. Most likely it’s going to reverse, for a least, a deeper reaction.
A forex pair without high randomness doesen't exist. Futures do depend on news regarding choppiness. However, you will find such moves in stocks. BA when the door incident happened is the best example for the conditions you are looking for. Find the parameters around it and you find dozens of stocks that behave like expected every day.
I think the traditional response in stocks is when the perceived bad news no longer makes the stock go down the move is over. The same for equity indexes. The last few weeks I noticed in the ES or even RTY bad news seems to have very little effect in this upward trajectory. Recently BA or even DIS comes to mind. I bought calls on DIS when the stock stopped going down on further bad news. Of course they were aided by a proxy fight brought on by Nelson Peltz. With BA more bad news doesn't really lower the price much anymore -- seems to have stabilized in $200-$205 area. I bought EL after the bad news stopped pushing the price down. Of course it went up on speculation the Chinese market will return but that is a wildcard for sure. That also explains the apparent bottoms at SBUX & NKE as well.
A catalyst of unexpected news/reports, is the best way to get highly directional moves that can run for days with only small pullbacks. Breakouts from multi week to months of price consolidation or constriction can make for large directional moves. Catalysts works best with stocks since there are far more opportunities than the indexes & tend to be more directional. Ex. An earnings beat/miss with forward guidance up/down can make for a highly directional large move on big volume as the big funds pile in or out.
That's why day traders use multiple monitors to monitor multiple futures. I have 20 to 30 futures on display. I pick and choose trendy futures, futures that move cleanly/decisively. And I'd avoid trading those futures that move choppily/messily/chaotically/whipsawingly.