I've placed this thread into Journals, we'll see how it evolves. The ASX ( Australian Stock Exchange) largely follows USA but not always. Sometimes ASX will head in an opposite direction. It is often viewed the ASX always lags USA but this is not true, often ASX leads USA. The first stock exchange in the world to open is New Zealand followed by Australia. The NZX I find gives no clues on direction, in actual fact my experience, it often tracks opposite ASX, my opinion being, when ASX is strong, money comes out of NZX and flows into ASX and vice versa, them being our neighbour. OK, where am I going to start with a trading opinion today? On Friday, USA Mkt largely dropped but imo is showing strong signs of a bounce to happen today - Monday. The ASX opened down hard today, I sold a Bear Fund (BBOZ.AX) into the open to grab a quick profit as I guessed the ASX was going to bounce. Sure enough ASX has 45 minutes of trading to go and is bouncing from its earlier losses. The ASX today is leading USA. Gold index fell hard on open and is too bouncing. What else is running hot in terms of the bounce? Coal, Energy, Banks, Metals, basically everything! COVER YOUR SHORTS boys and girls, we're going up!
Overnight bounce (remember I'm downunder and it's sunrise here) on USA as expected, very strong. What to expect today on ASX, gold continues bullish, actually nearly everything bullish, copper, iron ore, mining general, lithium, energy including gas, finance, technology, telecoms, utilities, healthcare. Not so bullish, coal, nickel. Expecting the bulls to run another day at least USA.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...d-australia-yields-negative?srnd=premium-asia BlackRock Says World of Panic Can Send Australian Yields Negative Ruth Carson March 02, 2020 For a fresh perspective on the stories that matter for Australian business and politics, sign up for our new weekly newsletter. Australia may be the next market to see negative yields as the fallout from the coronavirus drives an unstoppable bond frenzy, according to BlackRock Inc. Prolonged equity losses and monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia can send the nation’s 10-year bond yield into negative terrain for the first time, according to Craig Vardy, head of fixed income for Australia at the world’s biggest money manager. “Right at the moment you’d be absolutely crazy to fight markets, I think, and particularly bond markets,”said Vardy. “In a world of epidemic, in a world of panic, flight to safety, where are you still going to make money?” Vardy joins an increasing number of money managers who see the last major standouts against negative rates giving in as the impact of the coronavirus sweeps through the global economy. Bond yields from the U.S. to Australia have dropped to record lows after the Federal Reserve said Friday that it’s ready to ease if the American economy needs support. That’s raised expectations for a coordinated policy response. The Reserve Bank of Australia could set the tone on Tuesday as it is the first Group-of-10 central bank to meet this month. “What you’ll probably see is very much central bankers will be coordinating around the globe, it’s likely we’ll see a Fed cut as well this month. Sitting back and doing nothing right now in this environment is probably not the right answer.” Markets Are Pricing a Rush of Rate Cuts, But Nothing Like 2008 Even as Vardy questions the effectiveness of more easing in Australia, with policy rates already at a record low of 0.75%, he expects the RBA to cut on Tuesday and once more in May or June. Quantitative easing may then be implemented in the fourth quarter, said Vardy, who has been long 10-year Aussie government bonds and U.S. Treasuries since mid-February. Yields on Australia’s three-year bond yield dropped as much as 17 basis points to a record low of 0.33% on Monday. Australian stocks sank to a nine-month low. “If it gets to the point where you have got serious concerns in the equity market in particular and risk assets, then what’s to stop bond yields getting negative here?” Sydney-based Vardy said. “Nothing.” Below are other edited comments: Quantitative Easing It’s not credible to say that policy easing can get us out of the problems. Fiscal policy is frankly the only answer. I would hope to see fiscal support before you get to QE. The QE trade is restricted to Australian government bonds only, most likely at the long-end of the curve, say around 10-years. The idea for the RBA will be to absolutely flatten the curve. Aussie at 60 Cents In a world of QE, in a world of really low bond yields, the Aussie is probably not going to be the most attractive destination for a lot of people. Sixty cents is in the target range for us, and then clearly if things escalate, it will be through 60 U.S. cents.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/ne...g/news-story/993bc8364e863ac0750618ace7981e26 No need to ban short selling: Frydenberg The Australian 4:17PM March 15, 2020 Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has been told by the financial markets watchdog there is no need to ban short selling in the face of extreme price fluctuations caused by coronavirus fears. Such has been the volatility in recent weeks – the Australian share market sank over eight per cent at one stage on Friday – that Mr Frydenberg sought advice on whether to stop the practice. Short selling is where an investor sells a position in the market hoping shares in a company, for example, fall further so they can be bought at a cheaper price and close out the contract with a profit. Former Labor treasurer Wayne Swan banned short selling during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis largely to protect the big banks from foreign raiders. Mr Frydenberg told the Australian Financial Review he was advised by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission that “no change” was needed. “Our banking system is strong and well capitalised and corporate balance sheets are better than they were during the GFC,” he said. The newspaper said Mr Frydenberg was conducting a phone link-up with Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe and other regulators on Saturday after US markets closed, which again succumbed to a volatile session. The US S&P 500 index finished 9.3 per cent higher on Friday, a staggering rebound from a 9.5 per cent fall earlier in the day. The index was 8.8 per cent down on the week. The marked rebound came as US President Donald Trump declared COVID-19 pandemic a national emergency, and announced $50 billion for state and local governments to respond to the outbreak. As a result, Australian share futures point to a 1.1 per cent rise when the market opens on Monday. On Friday, the ASX 200 index finished 4.4 per cent higher after sinking by over eight per cent at one stage to its lowest level since 2016.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...ated-central-bank-action-20200316-p54ae8.html Heavy falls The financial sector took heavy blows today, accounting for 175 of the 537 points taken from the ASX200 index today. The big banks suffered huge falls. ANZ and NAB both fell 12.5 per cent to close at $16.45 and $16.12 respectively. Westpac decline 11.8 per cent to $15.98, and Commonwealth Bank fell 10 per cent to $59.72. Commonwealth Bank is at the lowest price in 8 years. The industrial sector also took a big hit, falling by 13.3 per cent due to falls of 18.4 per cent in Atlas Arteria, 17.7 per cent in Sydney Airport, 16.3 per cent in Transurban, and 13.4 per cent in Aurizon. Only three companies closed higher - Telstra up 1.8 per cent to $3.38, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare up 4.2 per cent, and Domino's Pizza up 0.2 per cent to $55.45. Domino's Pizza is down only 14.4 per cent since February 20 compared to a 30.3 per cent decline in the broader market. 4.24pm Shocking day There were gasps after the final settlement today. A 100 point drop after 4pm means the ASX closed 537.3 points lower at 5002, down 9.7 per cent in a single session. The index is now back to where it was in April 2016. The total value of the ASX declined by $162 billion today to $1.51 trillion. The index has now fallen 30.3 per cent since the high on 20 February.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/asic-issues-emergency-trading-rules-20200316-p54af5.html ASIC issues emergency trading rules as volumes soar Lucy Battersby and Charlotte Grieve Updated March 16, 2020 — 12.57pmfirst published at 10.25am Just before the market open on Monday, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission issued an extraordinary rule, telling institutions they must reduce executed trades by a quarter. "In addition to increasing volumes, Australia’s equity markets have seen exponential increases in the number of trades executed, with a particularly large increase in trades last Friday, March 13,'' ASIC said in a statement released on Monday. Sharemarkets around the world are being hit by devastating losses.Credit:Louie Douvis While markets have been able to operate, "there was a significant backlog of work" for exchanges and trading participants. The massive increase in trading is largely due to high frequency trading, which saw 6 million trades across the ASX and Chi-X on Friday compared to an average of 1.5 million trades during a regular session. "If the number of trades executed continues to increase, it will put strain on the processing and risk management capabilities of market infrastructure and market participants." ASIC has issued new rules asking ''large equity market participants" to limit the number of trades executed each day until further notice. "These directions require those firms to reduce their number of executed trades by up to 25 per cent from the levels executed on Friday. This action will require high volume participants and their clients to actively manage their volumes. We do not expect these limits to impact the ability of retail consumers to execute trades." Steve Boxall, Managing Director, Head of Equities, UBS Global Markets, Australasia, said it supported the move. “UBS is fully supportive of ASICs initiative which is designed to ensure that the Australian market continues to operate with minimal disruption,” he said. Alex Vynokur, the chief executive of exchange-traded funds provider Betashares, said ASIC had been monitoring market volatility management strategies since the GFC and said the announcement applied mostly to brokers. "Clearly ASIC is keen to make sure the brokers are reducing the number of volumes to do with high frequency trading," he said. ASIC had a good track record on "maintaining orderly markets" in Australia, Mr Vynokur said, before welcoming the move to limit trading volumes. "I definitely have a lot of confidence in ASIC's understanding of market dynamics."