What will be the true signal of next great depression.

If that really happens. What key index or numbers we shall look at in the next few months to witness this historical moment to be.

 

How about GDP growth

 

I don't listen to those professional writers about TRUE signal for depression.

I use my own down-to-earth, simple, TRUE indicators:

cost of living getting lower. Goods and services price drops > 25%

property price drops by > 2 times

Unemployment increases > 2 times

 

I doubt you could isolate it to ONE figure and why bother. It will be a combination of economic figures no one had ever imagined possible. Skipped the recession at several turns and then hit the wall. At least that's how I've been looking at it for awhile now.

 

there won't be any depression
as soon as virus gone you will see tens of trillions of stimulus
a lot of manufacturing will get back from China, inflation will increase dramatically
it's going to be stagflation circa 70s but not depression

the only remote chance for depression if virus becomes another flu and continues to reinfect those who were infected before and kill them

 

Because OP is probably a hedge fund loser who's trying to keep his job tbqh. Why else would someone 1 post a question like this.

 

I like your way of giving concrete numbers, but this seems to be metrics that shows we already in a recession/depression and not predicting signals. And we don't have a way of showing the hit is not going to recover soon or fundamentally change the outlook of the economy.

I think its hard to answer but maybe let me give several questions I think is cool:

1. Is the trade war going to be accelerated or tampered after this pandemic?
2. Is the US/global supply chain going to change drastically?
3. Which country/zone will be the one that hit hardest by this pandemic and that totally change the nation in every aspect

 

I would say a global health pandemic would be a big flag. Are you aware of market dynamics at the moment?

 

I like reading your takes in the more technical sections of this site. But why do you constantly attack the person and are presumptuous without the slightest background information on that person?

 

Yes, I have been following. Do you think this is almost certain ? I see a lot Big Banks forecast a deep dive but fast recovery.