Had a few this year.. 1) The worst one, in terms of missed gains, was getting stopped out on the 30 year above 148 back in spring (even called it in advance on ET!)... put on way too many contracts and couldn't take the heat. Stopped right near the top tick (about 3-4 ticks from the top). emg was right on this one: stop loss is for loser! 2) After that, not so much a bad beat, but just a premature entry: Shorting NKD near the top. Started selling around 15600 the day before the top! Scaled in too many contracts for my account size, and once again got stopped out. Failed to consider the blow-off scenario or psychological 16000 level resistance, and was not watching the multi-year index chart for upper channel resistance (pointed out by another ET member a few months later). emg's recurring theme strikes again. 3) Then, bought NKD near the bottom a few weeks later *two minutes* before the 'blow off bottom' -- after the two minutes, stopped out 3 ticks from the low instead of adding more... was trying to learn from the previous two bad beats. Stop loss is for loser in the futures market, clearly! There are a few more but these stick out, particularly #1 and #3 because the stop loss placement was just so poor/unlucky..right at the turn! Well, that was cathartic Anyone care to share their worst beats?
For those who try to pick tops/bottoms against a strong trend or a strong trending move, I have some great advice based on my own horror stories similar to yours: Before putting on the trade, decide on the price at which you would place a disaster stop, the price you believe will never be reached. Then place your limit order to enter the trade at that price because there's a 99.9% chance you'll get filled a few ticks from the turn
1.stopped out at exact swing high to 0.1 pip when loading decent size AUDUSD shorts off 1 min chart at 102.40 for swing trade. 2. missed second sell signal at 102.00 while sleeping. Enjoyed watching drop to 88-something. At least will not try again entering number of scalping trades to initiate swing. Clearly chasing stop at these levels is on.
in a bull market, buy pullback, buy new high. donot chase those beat down, or obviously trending down with out following the majority. if you not use margin, just buy. the stock market is very bullish, just buy. I suspect it will bullrun to $200 for spy this x'mas. buy FB buy AAPL buy LNKD all great stuff I am buying NBG for 10 target this year. pick bottom is stupid, follow the major trend where money is being printed .... anyone is making money,no strategy at all, forget about day trading, forget about swing trading,.... get in and get out too frequently is very risky! join the bull run, enjoy on the beach
Your input is genuinely appreciated, and all very valid -- was just hoping to stay on topic, and not discuss philosophies of trading or investing in the US stock market. Sorry about that! Anyone have bad beats they wish to share? Maybe your internet went out when a flash crash occurred, you were overutilizing $500 daytrading margin and blew your kid's college fund via auto-liquidation? Maybe you got in on a pullback and got stopped out at the low tick?
Thanks for this. Glad to hear some real advice based on real experience, along the lines of, "Well if you are going to free solo, here's a strategy to prevent falling off a cliff..." -- very pragmatic.
Sept 11th. I feel like I lost more than a dollar sign could measure that morning. I'll never, ever forget that feeling...