I'm trying to gather as much information as I can to better understand the overall market. What tools, information, and indicators do you use to see if the market will rise or fall?
If I am sitting in too much cash and buy the market usually goes down. If I am tapped out and have no money left to buy anymore it usually goes up. All you need to do is moniter who has too much cash and who is tapped out. If you are just checking out me, I have too much in cash and am buying all the way down, so that should give you an indication of where it is probably going. Do it my way and you could easily end up average (and that beats the heck out of 85% of all fund managers.)
no, but if you are serious about trading I would prepare for many differing opinions on how best to know if the mkt is going up or down. There are many tools, some swear by them, I only use my own account balance to tell me what do.
the "markets" are too complex, to really guess what will happen next [there are just too many variables] to keep it simple, why not pick something you are familiar with, and make a guess, on the direction, and pray that the over all market goes along with you also, you didn't mention whether you were a short term [day] trader, or a longer term, or swing trader... marc
Hi Marc, I swing trade etfs that track the S&P 500, eventually I want to move to options and futures that also track the S&P. I understand the variables are so numerous to count, but I believe I can feel out what the market direction will be if I weigh in all the information I can absorb.
I need more info to track, I need more data. Looking at all the data does make my brain feel like mush.
I don't do long-term predictions; I only attempt to predict the next trading day ahead. But I do know that Brett Steenbarger is looking at a wide variety of indicators and sectors (you could for instance be looking at the different sector ETFs and spot divergences between the broad index) for longer term predictions. His blog is free and he writes a LOT. Check it out and maybe you'll get some ideas. I'm not under the impression that he's rich from trading though, but you may get some ideas that could be worth exploring.