What speaks for a stronger or weaker US Dollar within next 12 months ?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by TrAndy2022, Sep 18, 2022.

  1. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    Want to discuss arguments pro or contra stronger USD within next 12 months here.

    I have an indicator found why USD should be stronger or at least not much weaker within next 12 months. This is kind of overall market opinion here and should be understood as it.

    Here is the article I find interesting:
    https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/posts/2021/11/Inflation-vs-Interest-Rates.php

    Attached some valuable charts here too. You see the spread of Inflation and 10y T-Notes bottomed right now or is on the lower end. That means much higher interest rates and thus a strong(er) USD.

    2021-11-11-1-Inflation-10YBond-Rates-890@1x.png
    2021-11-11-2-Inflation-10YBond-Spread.png
     
    piezoe likes this.
  2. Don't forget the impact of the Midterms soon... :)
     
  3. TheDawn

    TheDawn

    Considering US is a net importer and not a net exporter, I would say a stronger USD is more preferable.
     
  4. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    Anything speaks for a weaker USD ? As my position or opinion is a stronger USD too.
     
  5. Peter8519

    Peter8519

    Currencies where its central banks cannot match the Fed rates, smart money will sell their currencies and buy USD. Unlikely the Fed will cut rates as long as the CPI remains high. So, USD will remain strong.
     
    murray t turtle and TrAndy2022 like this.
  6. TheDawn

    TheDawn

    If one day US ever becomes a net exporter, then yeah a weaker USD will be more advantageous.