The question: Has an high likelability a 10 years SPX range bounded movement? In other words can the market discount a new flourishing blooming bull long term period? I have some doubt because to save the planet demand must shrink The explanation: "What Next?" is the title of the beloved The Economist© of the last week, still have to deep dive into the articles but i intuitively think epic changes are at the horizon. Sustainability, aka the need of the earth to survive to climate change will reduce the value of economy in a way that we will see a long term anomaly in the indexes? ------- Note: A further personal laughable lucubration, you can skip: Let's bring a simple Austrian economy consumer journey simplification: John Smith after the energy crisis will be able to consistently rationalize energy, even without inflation will feel bad to leave the lights open if goes to another room because is aware of the damage for the economy; he will try to use durable products, I will follow more and more "do yourself" tutorials on Youtube to not impact the environment and spare money(learning from the allegedly 2023 next recession). Companies and important think thanks will be more into recycling and circular economy, this will affect GDP and monetary circulation overall, kind of less power of multiplier effect, Keynesian measures. The most likely scenario: a well known republican will be soon in power and we will hit a new max but temporary because today climate change must be addressed, then another bear due to earning reports not satisfactory due to shrimping demand. I would like to know from veteran if you think that indeed we do not need to stick to past regression to understand this future ---
It's a beautiful thing when one party can blame the other for bad weather. Remember back when it was "global warming", but a bunch of scientists reported that the planet wasn't actually getting warmer, so we had to rename the boogeyman. In the 70's we were headed into an ice age as widely reported by the media with requisite scary doomsday scenarios. I fully agree that human caused carbon output is having an effect on the planet, but the Al Gore and John Kerry's of the world have been saying Miami would be under water in ten years for the last 40 years. If Obama truly thought the oceans were rising as fast he stated, then why did he buy a massive house on the coast in Martha's Vineyard? Absent of any overbearing mandates, vehicles (and many of the other emitters) have become exponentially more environmentally friendly since the 70's. Even the most red Republican has no interest in wrecking the planet, but sending billions of people into poverty over a theory that won't cooperate is no way to run a planet.
Nice points, but sorry for my terrible cynicism: I am asking here about a market forecast due to environmental demand crunch. What is the most likely scenario on SPX, will the economy at 70/60% will become the new normal and we have to get used to a range bound market without bull periods, or there are chances for a 2-3 year uprising market after a new high?
Among the things we humans currently have the power to do, the best chance of helping our planet sustain us for a longer period is via birth control, which has a large effect on man driven entropy. An effective form of birth control (the dead do not procreate) was famine. Today we have more pleasant means, but we'd have to eliminate religion to maximize birth control's efficacy. There is currently no proof that the measures being taken now, or planned for the foreseeable future, to reduce anthropomorphic CO2 release will have other than a trivial affect on mean temperature, let alone climate, but the only risk of trying would seem to be time and money wasted. Nevertheless we should expect real benefits of moving away from fossil fuels that go beyond any likely affect on climate. Maybe in hundred years when we better understand climate we will have something better than birth control to offer. see, among a hundred plus other papers: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep06150 https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/931108 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nir_Shaviv
The Fed has more to go as they force a recession and unemployment. For a guide to how long it will take for the economy to recover from a forced recession, and what to expect in market behavior, I would think it might be useful to look back to the 1981-2 Volcker recession and the subsequent recovery. It is interesting to note that a main precipitating event behind the inflation that inspired the Volcker fed to induce a recession was , just as it is a precipitating event today, a supply shock! However it might have been somewhat easier for the Biden Administration to deal with today's supply shock than the 1973 and 1979 oil supply shocks that precipitated cost push inflation in the 1970s. The other factor blamed, in part, for inflation of that period was demand pull created by excessive federal spending (too much money chasing to few goods and services). That's been blamed by some for today's inflation as well, but I am inclined to believe its a rather minor factor in the present case. The upcoming induced recession should rhyme somewhat with the volcker recession. Maybe the difference will be one of meter, say iambic pentameter versus iambic trimeter.
%% SLIM to none + slim left town; get the evil empire\russia out + evil empire spenders out. The ring leader chicago crook doesnt really believe in rising oceans or he would not have bought on Martha's Vineyard coast. And founder of weather channel said ''algore should be sued for fraud'' In the unlikely event of a SPY range bound between $150+ 75 for 8 year as has happened \ just trade + invest it+ dont buy an electric car in CA unless you like expensive toys\junk...........
Oh yeah, the market...sorry for going down the rabbit hole. I don't think the climate change stuff matters in a material way in terms of a market rebound. At the end of the day companies have to make money to continue to exist. Their profitability is a direct metric in terms of the value of SPX eg., 16 times forward earnings etc... As the mood changes and we proceed further through the cycle, suddenly folks will believe that SPX should be trading at 24 times earnings instead of 16 (just throwing out numbers here). Cycles today move much more quickly than 50 years ago or even 10 years back. Lots of people talk about the post Depression 30 year meandering of the averages, but I believe we would need a sustained period of continued destructive fiscal policy and further restrictive legislation to be in a position like that. We aren't there today, but anything's possible.
We have absolutely no solutions right now to anything involving the climate other than political games of moving carbon emissions to different boundaries so we can blame someone else and pretend we are doing something. I remember all the ethanol investment that took places years back that was going to save us even though if you did even the slightest bit of research it was quite obvious that the idea of running the economy on corn was a stupid and clueless idea. Now our solution is EVs that are doing absolutely nothing other than shuffling around who is emitting the carbon. Our solution to the problem is not much different than me lowering my carbon footprint by having you drive me to work. Hey it is your car that is emitting the CO2, I am carbon neutral. What comes next is more inflationary pressures as far out as you care to look. I mean there was really no mystery of what comes next from printing trillions of dollars and having tons of debt at -.5% . It is like we charged up the credit card and when we didn't get the bill in the mail the next day figured it must be a free lunch so we maxed the card out. The bill actually came in the mail a month later and it wasn't free money after all, oops. Now the economy is massively fragile to energy shocks and we are going to cause all kinds of energy shocks going forward pretending we are not an economy that runs on fossil fuels. In the next 20-30 years fiscal dominance will become a bigger and bigger issue. "Fiscal dominance is an economic condition that occurs when a country has a large government debt and deficit such that monetary policy targets keeping the government from bankruptcy as opposed to economic targets such as inflation, growth and employment. "
Is it any cleaner to have Venezuela or the Saudis drill for oil and ship it to us? I feel like if we are drilling at home, the process would be more controllable - not to mention giving back tens of thousands of US jobs. The E15 scam was the winner of the year. Any Republican President would never have a prayer of getting E15 deployment in the US through the Summer months, but the EPA rubber stamped approval this year for Joe. What the administration hoped for was an immediate 50 cent reduction in gasoline prices appearing on signs all over the country. A few stations played along and carried the stuff. What they never told the public is that ethanol does not aid in, nor provide combustion. So your mileage went down slightly more than the additional ethanol filler that had been added, resulting in more trips to get gas again and again. But hey look - gas is cheaper!!! Real progress is happening but it takes time. These political games and chicanery for appearances are making lots of people lose faith in the effort.