What do you think of moving average crossovers?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by nwoptions, Feb 25, 2021.

  1. Hi guys,

    I just finished reading the book "Trading Commodities and Financial Futures: A Step by Step Guide to Mastering the Markets" by George Kleinman.

    He recommends a 23/30-day EMA crossover system for trading futures. He recommends always being in the market.

    What's your experience like with moving average crossovers over the long term? Do they work?

    Thanks
     
    tayte likes this.
  2. roca

    roca

    They are not useful on their own, they need to be used in conjunction with price action. I think a read you will enjoy in "Technical Analysis using Multiple Timeframes". It has a chapter on moving averages
     
    CannonTrading_Ilan and nwoptions like this.
  3. CannonTrading_Ilan

    CannonTrading_Ilan Sponsor

    Agree with @roca MA cross over on their own are a scratch game at best.

    Add some filters like parabolics, price confirmation, sound money management etc. and now you MIGHT find an edge.

    These are simply to trigger some ideas/ explore a few options:


    Using overbought/oversold:


    Range bars


    Bollinger bands and parabolics:


    Price Confirmation:


    Support and resistance:
     
  4. Peter8519

    Peter8519

    Based on statistic, at least 60% fail(break moving average) within 20 days. It's hard to make money with such failure rate.
     
    nwoptions likes this.
  5. Thanks roca I'll check that out :)
     
    roca likes this.
  6. Bad_Badness

    Bad_Badness

    and multiple time frames => MACD. All of which is derived from price over time. So just learn price action
     
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  7. easymon1

    easymon1

    What are a few of the Essential Entry Triggers he recommends?
     
  8. tayte

    tayte

    yeah that's the best.

     
  9. Sorry I'm not sure what an Essential Entry Trigger is, as I'm new to trading. But in his book he says to go long when the 23 day EMA crosses above the 30 day EMA and go short when the 23 EMA cross below the 30 day EMA. His strategy involves always being in the market.

    There's some whipsaw action, but overall it's very profitable. My only critique is that the author only gave 1 year worth of sample trading and that may not be enough to judge whether it's a profitable strategy.

    What do you think of trend following as a trading strategy in general? Does it work?

    Thanks
     
  10. easymon1

    easymon1

    Naa, you got it,
    you got your setup, and you got your trigger "...go long (trigger an entry) when the 23 day EMA crosses above the 30 day EMA and go short (Trigger a Reverse) when the 23 EMA cross below the 30 day EMA. His strategy involves always being in the market."

    My two cents, if you want to do a quick and dirty first look at that setup, you could go find Ten times when it Did Not make money. While you do that, keep a tally of the number of occurances total of the trigger that you look at to end up with those bad ugly paper trades.

    That ratio of good to bad can give you an idea of whether it is worth putting more time into looking into the setup.

    You could quickly scan different timeframes and products without getting all exhaustive about it, but if you like it, then you owe it to your wallet to get pretty exhaustive about it before you put your cashola down.

    https://yippy.com/search?query=crossover+trading+strategy

    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=go+long+(...volves+always+being+in+the+market&t=h_&ia=web
     
    #10     Feb 25, 2021
    nwoptions likes this.