im stuck at a point where i dont know what i dont know and its messing up my trading. i always think that somethign i did can be predicted if i had more information.. so i want to ask what parts of the market can absolutely be predicted with certainty what can be predicted somewhat accurate and what absolutely cannot be predicted as a trader and what is out there that bigger institutions can predict by using algorithms and computers etc...
That is a complex but straightforward question. In trading, nothing can be predicted. We just focus on the charts and REACT to them. ie we have to stare at the screen for many many hours looking for opportunities / patterns / signals .... millions of people cannot tolerate staring at the screen for many many hours. so they come up with ideas like automation and those things. will it work?!?! Don't trade based on anticipation / prediction. those who trade based on anticipation / prediction probably don't have to stare at the screen for many many hours.
No, you can layout "possible outcomes" and know what you will do based on those contingencies. Then react as the market unfolds.
mute9003, If I can absolutely predict the market direction, I be chilling with these fine ladies every day. You have to stare at the chart and quantify a trading edge, then trade.
Lol don’t stare at a chart. Educate yourself on asset pricing and market structure. Stock prices are generally non-stationary geometric random walks. You cannot predict the next price of a stock. Stop trying to predict the price and instead try to predict outcomes of events (and what to do if you are wrong). Google “investment thesis” for tips.
Pretty much a mortal lock that stocks don't trade on Saturday Night EST. That could change too considering the myriad of events we see today that were unthinkable decade or two ago.
What timeframe charts do you want to trade? If you Could Predict something, as opposed to estimating the probability of an outcome, what would it be that you would expect to be one of the things that can be predicted to some degree?
well is your profit to loss ratio is above 50% arent you predicting the outcome with more than 50% probability?