What are the best trading ideas for an invasion in Ukraine? I imagine buying gold/oil/ngas. Maybe shorting europe etf and (russia) RSX etf. Going long defense contractors like LMT. Any other smart opportunistic trading ideas? Thanks
I heard they are in the process of pricing out a 3x leveraged Bunker ETF product. I think that could rally pay out well, particularly if things went nuclear.
long oil. I wouldn't go long defense because defense stocks already got a bump and US won't respond militarily anyway even though there is pressure to do so from the military industrial complex and mainstream media. One thing to consider, after Russia takes Ukraine and the Olympic games are over...what's stopping China from seizing Taiwan? If they take TSMC, there's only one other global leading process tech semiconductor company left outside China's control...
But the biggest and most advanced manufacturer of steppers in the world is in the Netherlands. Even the Chinese need them. If we cut off the Chinese from these machines they have a much bigger problem as the Dutch can deliver new machines to the world and exclude China. China tried already many times to copy the Dutch knowhow, but without any success. TSMC has also factories outside of Taiwan, so China will only control the Taiwanese factory, not the rest.
Yes, China needs lithography machines from ASML. They are the only manufacturers of the leading edge litho. Without those they won't make much progress. However, they will be able to take whatever TSMC currently has in Taiwan. TSMC currently only has 1 other fab outside of Taiwan and China, located in Washington State, US, but it's a 200 mm Fab, old tech. They are planning to build a big Fab in Arizona, but it won't be ready until 2024 at the earliest.
If the US and EU don't respond, Putin will take more countries. The US and EU will have to respond if Putin really takes Ukraine. All depends of how far Putin will go (if he will really invade Ukraine, which is not sure at all). Putin can have massive personal losses too. He is stealing already for decades billions that Russia receives from oil, gas , and all the rest. That can cost him (and his friends oligarchs) billions. Gas deliveries go for 75% to Europe, and Putin needs that money to run the country as the EU sales are responsible for over 50% of the budget that Russia needs to function. There are no pipelines to China at this moment that can replace the EU sales. So a confrontation with US/EU/NATO will only result in losses on both sides. Russia needs US/EU technology to operate their gas fields, they don't have the knowledge to do that themselves. Nordstream2 was not build by Russians, but by EU/US companies. Russia does not have the equipment or the knowledge for that. When the US forced a Swiss company to stop building the pipeline, the Russian had to stop building. They were lucky that the final missing part was not high tech, so they could solved that problem. But it took a long time and lots of money for them. All Russians who can afford it, buy cars from outside Russia, yachts, computers, washing machines, french cheese and wine, champagne, beauty products... all comes from abroad. Russia has no real industrial complex for these things and every attempt till today was a failure. This war is not just about who has the biggest army. It will cause an avalanche of other problems for either side. Putin had a traumatic experience when the Berlin wall fell and Russia lost many satellite countries. It was a nightmare for him. Because of this trauma Putin wants to go in history as the president that made Russia great again. That explaines why he tries to take back other countries (like Crimea, and now also probably Belarus...) Where did I hear that before? Make a country great again? Putin is afraid to take Ukraine. What happens at this moment is not his usual way of doing if he really wants to take Ukraine. He takes by surprise if he wants to do something. But until today he did just the opposite. Now he is showing everything in public and is already hesitating months to do anything. He is bluffing. Wants to make people afraid so that they accept his terms. Yesterday Putin was discussing hours with the Ukrainian President Zelensky. If you want to take a country, you don't discuss, you just take it. By surprise and with your troops hidden as good as possible. But Putins is already showing in public he wants to take Ukraine and he even shows extensively all his military positions and even soldiers on mission in Siberia.
Why short 'us' (Europe). We provide nice holidays by offering a range of cultures in small ranges in distances.
IF your broker makes rsx and yndx non marginable buy them anyway. Their risk department are one of the worst market timers