What the businesses are REALLY doing behind their financial statements? Cuz they sit on like 10,000 boards of those companies, many that make up the indexes plus they are businessmen themselves that own companies that permeate into every facet of our lives. So yeah they will know more about the true economic condition than we do. They, especially Warren Buffett ARE the economy.
I'm shocked the article didn't mention the Buffett Indicator because it's off the charts right now. In a nutshell, a little over 20 years ago Warren Buffett came up with an indicator that compares the total economic output of the U.S. (GDP) to the total capitalization of all publicly traded stocks (Wilshire 5000). From Buffett's perspective, they should pretty much be equal to achieve homeostasis, so when that ratio gets out of wack, it's either a buy or a sell signal. So for example, if the Wilshire 5000 value dips to 70% of GDP, that's a buy signal for stocks. But conversely, if the stock market is on fire which causes the Wilshire 5000 total value to be 150% greater (or more) than GDP output, then that would be a sell signal for stocks. Currently we are at 181%, which means that the value of all stocks is almost double the total current economic output of the U.S. So there's your Burry and Buffett sell signal.
And there's little hope in the medium term future for things to get better. With all the fiscal spending of the last few years, we're at a point now where the annual interest to service existing debt could be in the $1T range by 2030. You can't help but think either equity prices will come off significantly or we are headed for serious austerity - or both.
If there are higher real yields, can stocks really sport $2-3 trillion market caps? The Buffett indicator made sense in the old days when companies weren't as global.
The major stock indexes are all going down. It is quite possible that the trend is changing direction from up to down. Bias appears to be on the side of the shorts. Monies can be made taking the short side as well. As a trend follower, I do not care if it goes up or down. I can trade the huge moves and make monies.