i think we get another one day crash that flushes the market and get a temporary bottom. I see the s&p going to 1985-2000 area.
And for what it is worth, for those who do not follow the futures, last prints for today... ES -> 2266.5 YM -> 18883 NQ -> 6920.25 So I dunno, man. Dow under 10K could be with us as the very very bad eco data starts piling in through the second quarter. Only a 60% drop, which is not unreasonable, all things considered. So if I were a betting man, end of May to end of June would be "the bottom".
What year? Bottom = 6-9months after virus cure released at earliest imho I'd forecast from 30-50% retracement from entire 10 year S&P bull run. It's gonna be red for a long time. S&P 1750 target by October 2020
Hmm... 6-9 months after the "cure" is released? Well, there is not a cure, per se. There will only be a vaccine against the virus, and they say that is at least a year out from here. So March 2021 for a vaccine to start circulating. The thing is, by then, most of the world's population will have developed antibodies to the virus. People are not going to stay cooped up in their homes for a whole year. This summer, they are going to get better in spirit and mind with the higher light levels in the Northern Hemisphere. Works wonders for the immune system. I'll stick with my bottomish call for end of May to end of June.
Fauci said a vaccine won’t be ready for 12 months at least Plus another 6-9 months after you think?! That would be one hell of a bear. At this rate it would be S&P double digits. I think we test 2000 on this leg then get the usual bear market 15-20% rip that suckers everyone back in for another slaughter.
I gots a funny feeling this thing will diminish by the start of the 3rd quarter. Just the nature of how the pathogen is spreading. We're all going to get the thing, and I suspect many folks here in US have already had it and recovered without them even knowing. So it has come and gone for them. This household included, based on a visit from someone from Hawaii back in beginning of January. Couple folks in the house got flu-like stuff, felt like crap for a few days, all better in 10-12 days after that. Just like a flu-like infection. Oh well. Even the dog survived it.