Was Nike's earnings a shot across the bow? Could this be a strong signal that the consumer is definitely slowing? The consumer is 2/3 of the economy and it seems their is definitely a retrenchment is spending. What does this mean for the overall economy?
Not necessarily. Nike earnings shortfall is basically due to 3 factors: 1) Weakness in foreign sales, especially China 2) Losing market share in athletic shoes to newcomers, especially On Running and Hoka 3) Trying to push more sales via Nike-owned stores and website, instead of via Foot Locker, Dick's Sporting Goods, etc. Naturally these stores are going to push back by promoting other brands None of these indicate that the main problem is lack of demand from USA customers
Think about it . Since 2009 which is 14 yrs we’ve not had a real recession . Covid was a few months and the fed wallpapered money like candy to prevent a big downturn . Recessions are needed to reset the bar . The bill is coming due . Many people stuck with high interest loans,depleting cash positions etc. I’ve been in the mkt a long time . To me this mkt in relation to interest rates and earnings is the most expensive ever . Outside a handful of tech stocks you have flat to down growth . I see restaurants and stores closing left and right in my area . I see retail space everywhere thats been empty for yrs .Till the mkt cares it doesn’t matter
Since roughly 2001 the govt has been doing everything it can to avoid a slowing economy by propping up the consumer. The Bush rebates come to mind. I think many have become conditioned to living close to the edge knowing this. "hey, things get bad, the govt will send me a check". So, thrift and saving money for a rainy day is out. No cash? Put it on a CC. No CC? Put it on a BNPL account. Nothing seems to slow the consumer down. People are amazed at out how high prices have gone over the past few years, but those same people are still willing and able to pay those high prices.
Wokeness hurt companies, no doubt and it probably had an effect on Nike. That said, I see a lot of restaurants and small business complaining about a slowdown in business. I do thank a slowdown in consumer spending is partly responsible for Nike's lackluster earnings. Nike reminds be of Starbucks.
I wouldn't read too much into this one.Not saying you're wrong about the consumer in general perhaps, but right now WS will punish the stalwarts that aren't upping forward guidance. Especially in fashion and apparel. And especially a DOW stock. Fashion is fickle. For every Nike, there's an ONON. Nothing new.
Good analysis there. Just another global brand fooled by Covid into think it was permanent. Their marginal demand was coming from China but China is years away from a recovery. Look at the European Luxury brands, they are all crashing (except Ferrari) as well and they, like Nike, get all marginal income from China as well. Even Starbucks & Apple are having trouble for the same reason. Dutch Bros is the new Starbucks, at least in terms growth.
Absolutely not. The arrow was shot across the bow a few months ago. Nike has been on the downtrend for months already.
I just looked at the chart of Dutch Bros (BROS). Wow, it has really outperformed Starbucks well over the past couple years, https://tinyurl.com/2s3su8kv