️ Wall Street Reacts to the Fed: “Confirms Easing Bias” (with ChatGPT Eli5) Wall Street traders, strategists, and economists are weighing in on today’s Fed decision. Here’s a snapshot of the early reactions: --- David Mericle, Goldman US Economist ELI5: The Fed sees a softer economy and hints it might lower rates, but overall nothing shocking. They admitted growth slowed, and uncertainty is still high. --- Will Marshall, Goldman Rates Strategy ELI5: The announcement was mostly expected. The press conference will be key to see how Powell balances inflation risks vs. slowing growth. --- Mike Cahill, Goldman FX Strategy ELI5: The Fed is mostly just describing the past. They see a slowdown, but they aren’t ready to commit to the next move yet. --- Simon Penn, UBS Sales and Trading ELI5: The Fed still leans toward cutting rates, but nothing major changed today. Powell will likely keep it vague about timing. --- Florian Ielpo, Lombard Odier ELI5: Markets didn’t care much about this update. Some Fed members may just be positioning for a future role. --- David Russell, TradeStation ELI5: The Fed’s in wait-and-see mode. Future rate cuts will depend on how inflation data looks in the coming months. --- Kathy Bostjancic, Nationside ELI5: The Fed is sounding more cautious again, saying things still feel uncertain — which is a bit surprising given recent clarity on trade. --- Stephen Brown, Capital Economics ELI5: Two dissenters doesn’t mean a rate cut is coming soon. Might just be political or personal posturing. --- Ashish Shah, CIO, Goldman Sachs Asset Management ELI5: Most of the Fed wants to wait for more data, but there’s a real chance they start cutting again by fall if inflation stays tame or jobs weaken. --- Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics ELI5: Today’s decision was expected, but the dissent is rare. A cut could come sooner — but more likely in December if inflation doesn’t cool off soon. https://archive.is/d5Vdg --- TL;DR Summary The Fed held rates, as expected. Language changed to acknowledge slower growth and persistent uncertainty. Two members dissented, pushing for cuts — rare but not shocking. The Fed still leans dovish, but is data-dependent. Markets barely moved — signaling this wasn’t a major shift.
What happens in the days and weeks that follow matter more than what happened in the two hours of trading after announcement.
The amount of wasted talks on rate cuts the last few years is absolutely insane. Earnings are stellar, unemployment is at historic lows, gdp is rising and and rising ...markets are breaking out to new highs every single second of the day and consumers seem to spending as if they have literally unlimited funds. Inflation is extremely tame and yet people are begging for rate cuts ... Every talking head is screaming how strong the economy is and how markets are only predicted to move higher ....again why do we need rate cuts... what is the damn reason why they are begging for cuts when every single nook and cranny of this economy is showing great strength ????
Not every nook and cranny is showing strength. eg Home building, car loan defaults I work in the tech sector and companies are still doing layoffs.
Car loan defaults have been in the news for quite some time and still hasn't had any negative impacts, I don't think car loan defaults are going to set off a wave of wallstreet destruction like they sub prime fall out over a decade ago. As for car loans, they are now the highest in history. The average car being sold is also averaging the highest price in all of history and people are still saying yes ill take a new shiny car with insurance and gas for $1000+ a month!! Spoke to someone the other day, they have a 2024 yr model Hyundai..to insure it was $325 a month!!!! On top of a car payments and gas. So yes multiply that by many millions of people and I can see why car loans are defaulting!!!