https://www.afr.com/companies/finan...will-be-far-larger-than-trump-20200219-p542gt Tony BoydColumnist Feb 26, 2020 — 12.00am The coronavirus will force boards of directors around the world to review their supply chains and reduce their reliance on China, according to Larry Fink, chief executive of BlackRock, the world's largest fund manager. Mr Fink told The Australian Financial Review that if the impact of the coronavirus was prolonged and this harmed world economic growth, it would be up to governments to provide fiscal stimulus rather than central banks cutting interest rates. "I was surprised that the markets were so stable in front of the whole uncertainty around the coronavirus," he said in an interview in Sydney. BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink says markets misinterpreted the impact of the coronavirus. Louise Kennerly "What I believe we are witnessing is some real questions related to how should world trade be navigated. World trade has been questioned through [US] President [Donald] Trump's approach in terms of imposing tariffs and that was the first, I would say, blow towards globalisation. "I think the coronavirus, and all the implications around it are far larger. I think the market has misinterpreted the degrees of what the coronavirus can do and I am talking specifically about trade with China. "dependency on one location, China". "I do believe there's going to be a review of supply chains at every company in the world. We were talking about this for the last two weeks at BlackRock and we could see the dependency on one supply chain. We can see now that may be inappropriate." More resilient supply chains Australia's retail sector is particularly reliant on China. About 15 per cent of consumer goods imports, including 70 per cent of imports of clothes, furniture, and telecommunications equipment come from that country, according to Goldman Sachs. Larry Fink said the coronavirus should be kept in perspective. "Right now it's just there's more fear than reality," he said. Louise Kennerley Mr Fink, who heads a company with $US7.4 trillion ($11.1 trillion) in funds under management, said the restructuring of supply chains might not affect overall global GDP but it could be inflationary. "You're going to see companies move supply chains to other parts," he said. "It may be a little inflationary to people who have chosen to go to China because of the excellent infrastructure that they have there, and the ability to manufacture at relatively inexpensive prices, large sums of products, whether it's the Apple iPhone or, a piece of clothing or a part for a car. "I believe the outcome will be probably more resilient supply chains throughout the world, so that's all positive. "But does it lead to higher cost as a lead to margin pressure for companies? Or does it lead to the beginning of inflationary pressure as we start re-calibrating our supply chains?" He praised the Chinese government for its "tightly controlled" handling of the coronavirus and its apparent mitigation of the problem as shown by falling infection rates. "We can all say China may have been slow to address the issue of coronavirus but I think it would be very hard for anyone to say that once they understood the degree to which the virus was going to impact its society, I think, by all public reports, it appears they're doing as much as possible," he said. "They had the ability to really ring-fence millions and millions of people. "The question is, are other countries, who are starting to see incidents of rising coronavirus cases, going to be able to do that with the same fortitude in the same logistics? "We don't know that yet. I think this is why the markets fell so much. It just throws this whole degree of uncertainty into the world. "Most certainly it's going to slow down, global tourism, most certainly it's going to cause even more imbalances in supply chains and most certainly it's going to have a bigger short-term impact on global GDP." 'No one talks about it' He said the coronavirus should be kept in perspective. "Right now it's just there's more fear than reality," he said. "Let's give a relative understanding of what the coronavirus is versus a normal flu virus. The 2018 flu virus, that's the last year we had total statistics, 84,000 Americans died and no one talks about it." When asked if Mr Trump was doing a good job, Mr Fink said he did not want to get into politics. But he did defend Barack Obama's economic track record. He said: "The economy is growing at the same rate it did over the last two years. In many ways, we've seen a continuation of the economic growth and you have to give credit to President Obama and President Trump and the Federal Reserve for the continuation of the US expansion. "What President Trump has done, though, is he has extended the growth rate for another three years. Many people thought the economy was going to go into recession. "Before the coronavirus entered our minds, I would have said that 2020 was going to be a very positive year for the United States and maybe going into 2021. "But we've never seen a 12-year expansion like this. And so this is a pretty large expansion now. What the President has done though, by restricting immigration, is lowered unemployment. "He entered the presidency with a 4.7 per cent unemployment rate, I believe, and now it's close to 3.7 per cent. We're at historical low levels of unemployment."
They'll accept nothing can be done its too late to stop the spread and carry on regardless soon even China will go back to work, nothing will change.
I generally never sell in these environments. However, as of today I have made one exception. I am selling everything that has a significant supply chain tie to China. I usually hold ETFs (which I wont sell since they are fairly well diversified against this risk) but I have 3-4 individual stocks I've built positions in. Many of them are exposed significantly to supply chain disruption. I plan on selling these, eating my losses, and rolling those funds into less risky ETFs until this blows over. I do not want to be caught holding the bag when earnings roll around and every company is reporting massively negative margins.
Hell of a Gap down NQ -200 area currently, DAX little move on the chart, how much 130pts, CRAZY!!! The 2 week delay to spread it before you realise you have it is too much, that 1 person who's been diagnosed likely spread it to 30people each of which has spread it to 30 people so on and so forth.
Virus that spread, spread, virus's which don't, don't last long, it's called evolution. Ocham's Razar, the simplest answer is generally the correct answer, which is not engineered just naturally evolved.
Perspective: Around 80,000 died in the U.S. in 2017 from the common flu. Around 1650 people in the U.S. die EVERY day from cancer. Around 8000 people in China die EVERY day from cancer. The cancer numbers continue to rise every year. Now, for these flu outbreaks, no one is talking about what the Vitamin D levels were in the blood of those who died from the flu. I bet they were mostly below a 32 blood level. 95% of people in the U.S. have blood levels below the minimum recommended level of 60. READ THIS: https://blog.newsinnutrition.com/2019/08/peptide-primer-ll-37-super-antibiotic-you-make-on-your-own/ I take this 2x a day, hardly get any sun during the day, and my blood Vitamin D levels is over 60, far into the safe zone so your body can produce its most powerful antibiotic: go to Amazon, lookup "d3 k2 evolved". It's a good brand. Taking D3 does little good on its own. You MUST take it with vitamin K2 present. If the virus starts rising dramatically in the U.S., I will up my D3/K2 dosage to 3x a day. 15,000 IUs of D3 is nowhere near toxic levels (60,000 IUs a day is considered the low end of dangerous). [Incidentally, my wife's vitamin D blood level is 80, she gets as little sun as I do and takes the Evolved D3/K2 2x a day, same as me. Different people have different levels of absorption. Mine is obviously lower (I'm at a 66 D blood level last time I checked). Forget your doctor with blood tests like this. They're not considered standard tests and you'll get either overcharged and/or your medical insurance won't cover it. It's way cheaper to order your own blood tests from walkinlab.com. You MUST get your Vitamin D blood level checked to know where you currently are. It's not an expensive test. You order the test online, take a printed voucher to either Lab Corp or Quest Diagnostics testing center for the blood draw and you'll get your results back into your walkinlab.com account. Easy stuff. Watch this video to educate yourself on exactly what the combination of vitamins D3 / K2 do: As far as the markets go, just watch the Fear / Greed Index. If it gets to 0-10, start looking to accumulate: https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ As far as daytrading futures, I personally think it's better to switch to the RTY in place of the NQ until the volatility calms down.
You know I’m just gonna say that people seem to believe anything they read on the internet and taking vitamin D probably won’t save you from the respiratory failure that kills you. Steve Jobs believed eating only fruit would be a miracle diet and you see how well that worked out for him. Perhaps leave medical research to people who have done 12 years of school in it. It strikes me as absolutely ridiculous to believe there’s some grand medical conspiracy that is ignoring vitamin D as a panacea. That’s not how science works!
Perspective, well not a lot of point, we don't know how many when it the health care system can't treat anyone, it's going to kill, could make 80,000 look like a drop in the oceon. I take D3 over the winter, helps with my mood and general health, but China is a hot country and I'd bet there getting enough D3 from the Sun so totally irrelevant.