Just to be clear, I keep my expectations bounded for a number of reasons but I do like to see em sweat. And win or lose, it is clear that the dems are paying a price for some of their woke shiite there in VA. Yeh, I know. They are bringing Obama in to work the turf along with Kamala. That sounds more like a get out the republican vote effort to me, although I am sure the hard core lefties- most who work in DC- will get a tingle up their legs. Those are not new votes though. Odds favor that ghoul McAuliffe but this could get funner. And fun is good. Anyway. the Monmouth Poll that just came out is their worst nightmare. So how can that not be fun? Monmouth Poll Shows Tie Race For Virginia Governor; Republicans with More Enthusiasm; Shift in “Red” Direction Since Last Month’s Poll https://bluevirginia.us/2021/10/mon...shift-in-red-direction-since-last-months-poll
McAuliffe is from NY originally, got into politics as a fund raiser, particularly for the Clintons. He seems irritable and to act entitled. Youngkin is a real born and bred Virginian. He seems like a fresher face. Father was a Duke basketball player. I watch TV News here in Northern Virginia, and half the commercials are for one or the other. Lots of money being spent.
Yup. McAulliffe has been around forever either in public or dirty dealing in the background. He is the one who got the 500K in campaign funds to Andrew McCabe's wife for her state senate campaign which Andy somehow forgot to report. Can happen. He was a board member at the Clinton Crime Foundation too so he has "facilitated" lots of deals.
Another thing, McAulliffe's status as an establishment figure may be hurting him. All the big names he is bringing to Virginia like Obama indirectly showcase how establishment he is. Biden's numbers are so low that McAulliffe doesn't want him here. Virginia is a trending blue state, but really not that liberal.
The dems nationwide are worried bigtime. Not just because it would be an obvious trouncing if Youngkin wins but because their entire midterm and 2024 strategy is built around the idea that no republican can thread the needle- ie. be republican without roundly and soundly either embracing or outright rejecting Trump. Their plan is to take republicans down by making January 6 terrorists out of all of them or on the other hand getting them to distance themselves from Trump and watch the trump supporters take them down. Youngkin is their worst fear. That there may be a breed of republican cat who can successfully navigate that. The dems took their clown show out to California and got Newsome re-elected but it is wall to wall dems in Cali so that is not really the test of things. Just the fact that Larry Elder and the recall got as far along as it did is a bad sign for dems in swing states.
Biden to stump with McAuliffe Tuesday © Getty Images President Biden will campaign with Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe Tuesday amid growing alarm that Republican Glenn Youngkin can pull out a victory next month. Biden and McAuliffe, who is running for his second nonconsecutive term, will stump in the Democratic bastion of northern Virginia on Tuesday in the waning days of early voting. Election Day is on Nov. 2. Biden is the latest in a string of Democratic A-listers who are campaigning with McAuliffe. The former governor recently stumped with Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams and will appear with former President Obama this weekend. Obama also starred in an ad that the McAuliffe campaign released this week. A Monmouth University poll showed each candidate winning the support of 46 percent of registered voters, a slip from September when the same poll showed McAuliffe with a 5 point edge.
It will be close as recnet polls suggest but Northern Virginia is where like 30% of the population is and it is predominately blue. The other clusters are Richmond and near the navy base down in Hampton Roads and they are all Blue. When you get to Richmond and go south east and west it is nothing but mountains, farms and open land and very little people. They are of course red. So the question is how much ground can Youngkin pick up in those 3 zones that carry the election for the state every year. The presidential race was separated by 500,000 votes which is really big. Youngkin will be able to close a gap like that (less people vote in those in between elections) quite a bit but I dont think VA is ready to flip just yet. Looking at the issues Youngkin does not have the same things like CA or NY to hammer home and switch voters. COVID has been handled pretty well by the localities ( not giving credit to the politicians) and is not the main theme of the campaigns, it is education - teachers and curriculum. Every ad is focused only on that but not every voter has kids in school so it depends on who votes. VA has numerous public schools highly rated in national rankings so Youngkin is fighting an uphill battle using dog whistles to get people riled up. VA does not have state wide liberal issues that a GOP can use to switch voters so despite McAuliffs flaws, Youngkin has to take advantage of Dems poll numbers tanking. That being said, Biden's poor polling numbers can sway the independents and GOP is more motivated in this election than the Dems. I think straight demographics give edge to Terry but Youngkin can make it the closest GOV race in quite some time.