Once a super hot, big mover this data is not so much in focus now. However it is still some of the most important data the US publishes and IF, and that's a BIG if, the key important components deviate harmoniously without a conflict. Then we can expect a sustained move in many FX pairs. I concentrate on USDJPY, the liquidity is good, and spreads small. Last month we got some small deviations but still USDJPY produced 15 safe pips. The move wasn't too violent, and the fills would have been good. See Charts Here --> https://kenc4jbhyi.execute-api.eu-w...S0wMi0wNSUyMDEzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ.. In January 2021 we have a very good example of why the data must deviate harmoniously without any substantial conflicts. We had a large -211 deviation from the headline number, but we also got a small Unemployment conflict along with some rather large conflicts from "Average Earnings", which is an inflationary number. The move was a deadly mess! Wouldn't have wanted to be in the market on that one! See Charts Here --> https://kenc4jbhyi.execute-api.eu-w...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTI2MDkwO3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0wODtyPU0x Trade Plan, IF we get a sizeable deviation from "Nonfarm Payrolls" of more than 100+- AND Unemployment doesn't conflict then we can look to enter the market, and hope for a sustained move. I would watch for any big deviations from Average earnings that conflict, anything more than 0.4+- would call in to question if the move will be long lasting.
News event, such as NFP, are almost always a 3 part deal:- 1) trend coming into announcement 2) initial reaction to the announcement 3) counter reaction
Job numbers sent the 10 yr in full rally mode. If this break 2% in the next few weeks all hell will break lose. The fed may lose all control. What has helped the market for over a decade may now cause complete chaos in equities.
Also OPEC+ did not cut sending crude (and of course price at the pump) higher. Which only benefits the oil cos.