There are 4 main lines of data: - DOE Crude DOE Gasoline API Actual Crude API Actual Gasoline Remember that Oil is a commodity. More oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive deviation means a SELL on OIL and a negative deviation means a BUY on oil! So we must reverse the triggers! Today’s forecasts are as follows : DOE Crude +0816 DOE Gasoline -3467 API Actual Crude +12800 API Actual Gasoline -8500 Therefore I’ll use the forecast of = + 6000 for Crude oil = - 6000 for Gasoline Trade plan Trade on - US Oil, Crude, WTI Crude and Gasoline Must deviate in the same direction, if Crude deviates by a minimum of 7000, then we can look to enter the market for some easy pips! We know that the market watches the API oil report for clues as to the possible outcome of The Crude Oil Inventories report today. Yesterday’s API showed another conflict between Gasoline and Crude. Let's hope that's not what happens today, as we don't want to take any trade if there's a conflict. Recent History... Check out the move that API private report created last night! See charts here... http://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.c...naws.com/#/calendar;i=33696;t=2021-03-09;r=M1 We can see last week’s report had a huge deviation but also a huge conflict! The move was BIG but short-lasting, with few opportunities to get in on the trade. That's a dangerous situation, that's best avoided. See charts here... http://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.c...naws.com/#/calendar;i=33030;t=2021-03-03;r=M1 Good luck James.
This is a good example where you should not wait for crude oil data release and trade it. Do not be lazy. Be very hardworking and analyze the past few year's data. Notice that way before the crude oil inventory data release, the price has already moved significantly ; during Asian session, the price went down 125 ticks and not pips ($1250). during European session, the price went up 170 ticks ($1700). during early US session, the price went down 125 ticks ($1250). Then the price went up 135 ticks ($1350). Then there was an inventory data release. and the price didn't move much. Do not be lazy. You need to spend thousands and thousands of hours staring and analyzing past few years data. Do not assume inventory data release will move the price tremendously. Laziness will lead you nowhere. Obviously, you failed to analyze the past few year's data. There are times where inventory data release will impact the price. And there are times where inventory data release will hardly impact the price. What I had said to you is not new. I have said all these things to you before but you failed to be hardworking. In short, if you want to earn money, stop being lazy. Be very hardworking. Also, your macro view is very bad. You need to have a good overall feel of what is happening in this world. All the best / worst to you mister (depending on whether you want to be hardworking or not).
You've got big commercials already positioned for this. You've got Hedge Funds buying satellite photos of Oil Storage Tanks ( the lids collapse as they draw down ). You've got very, very good private subscription services like Platts that specialize in modeling this information for their clients in advance. The big thing to remember is that what you might think is bullish or bearish will usually deviate from what the market interprets. And finally, very deep pockets will typically use market movement like an API or DOE number to get into or out of a position. Which can also ruin your day if you're a spec trader. For example, don't be surprised if 'bullish' data gets confronted with huge offers or sustained sell orders being injected into a rally - which can wear it down quickly once the specs realize that they are loaded up and the market movement isn't really going their way.
The OPEC + production cut news was much more market moving last week than any of the data you are citing.
Here's the "actual" report. Paragraph 3 would be YOUR interesting bit. "Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending March 5, 2021 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 12.3 million barrels per day during the week ending March 5, 2021 which was 2.4 million barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 69.0% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 3.7 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.7 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 0.6 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.6 million barrels per day, 11.7% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 577,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 472,000 barrels per day. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 13.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 498.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 11.9 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 5.5 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories were virtually unchanged last week and are about 15% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.2 million barrels a day, down by 7.1% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.1 million barrels a day, down by 11.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.2 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 3.1% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 29.8% compared with the same four-week period last year."