Of the guys here, I'd choose gaussian. So at this point it's mainly a question of "how long" instead of "when" or the lesser "how". I know I got something. What I need is some help to speed up the research process. I don't need: - software development - advanced mathematics (master's to PhD level) What I need is help at PhD level mathematics in tweaking / understanding a narrow issue that doesn't quite pan out. If it does pan, the outcomes will be: 1) Ideally, we're drowning in money. Really, that's the drowning problem I would wanna have 2) Statistically, it won't be #1 yet but a significant step towards it. My experience in edge-level mathematics and software development has shown me that every single breakthrough you make brings a number of even uglier "bugs". I'm paid the money I am because I solve bugs. Nasty bugs. Think 90's Pulp Fiction bugs as an analogy.
A shortcut to pricing theory of derivatives which doesn't require another 2 years of lone effort on my side. If that works we gonna make not billions but trillions. And I wanna be a qlionnaire.
You want to 'predict' where it will be on what time or do you want to know the relationship between underlying and the derivatives and how they react to each other?
More on the latter, I also wanna fire a "Pistol Carpați Md. 1974". Not all guys here are Americans with free access to a shooting range, not that it matters.
When you wonder why they found the assassins of Philip. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_II_of_Macedon The bodyguards liked their job. Don't fuck with them.
I have some other questions: When we are going to make trillions in the derivatives, who is going to be taking the opposite? Are we going to be needing to be fast to surprise them once or are we going to exploite an edge over time that they cannot see and protect against it? Are we going to 'create' the surprise or edge or are we going taking something that allready is happening and exploite that? Your comment about the assassins to me is that we are going to make something that is not obvious, but still will be tolerated by the mean, so they can not shut it down, right?