To me it seems like the current uncertain environment surrounding the iPhone 7 sales makes the upcoming earnings announcement pretty volatile one way or the other. 1. Channel checks conducted by analysts have been contradictory; 2. Sprint announced iPhone 7 pre-orders are basically through the roof with some models already sold out; 3. ASP's will likely be higher; 4. Reports saying around 5 million Note 7 users are switching to iPhone 7 (this is a new variable that hasn't been focused on in prior releases); 5. iPhone 7 release date has a 3 day advantage over the iPhone 6 (small but good to note); 6. Analyst' estimates are ~15 percent lower than Q4 of 2015 (when the iPhone 6s was released), even though the 6s (and all the other "s" releases) was released well before the beginning of the replacement cycle. The 1st quarter of 2016, when the full impact of the 6s was realized, sent AAPL lower as earnings barely beat estimates. The iPhone 7, on the other hand, more likely corresponds with the normal replacement cycle.