Hi. I was wondering – under what circumstances people thought the Euro might weaken after the upcoming German Federal Elections on September 24th? Of course, it would appear Merkel’s victory seems to be a foregone conclusion. But outside of the fairly clear certainties that Merkel’s CDU will win most votes with the Social Democrats coming second, in which circumstances might we see the Euro weaken come Monday when the retail forex markets begin again. Thanks!
A Merkel win is priced into the euro. Might be an idea to short the euro in case she doesn't. Small position since there might still be a relief rally. Maybe short the dax if it is still open? Also consider the possibility of a lot more votes for alt germany or whatever anti european party they are called.
Exit polls indicate only 20% for SDP, who have now said they would not join a coalition govt with Merkel. This means that that Merkel will have to go into coalition with the FDP and maybe Greens. FDP is not as Euro friendly as SDP...if you shorted Euro as i recommended, you should see it sharply lower tonight when the market opens