Betting on elections is now legal in the U.S as of this afternoon. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/02/bets-on-congressional-races-allowed-cftc-appeals-court.html Prior to this ruling, the only way to bet on elections in the U.S. is through Predictit, which has heavy fees (i.e., you pay a 10% fee on your winnings, and another 5% fee when you withdraw). Worse yet, trades were capped at $850 in value. Now you can bet on elections on Kalshi. Kalshi charges no fees if you add liquidity (i.e., place a resting limit order) but there are fees if you remove liquidity from the book ($0.02 fee on a $0.50 contract). There is a nominal $2 fee to withdraw. No cap on trade value. As of right now Kalshi has two election markets: which party controls senate and house. No market yet for who wins prez, but I expect that market to be out soon. https://kalshi.com/live/trump-v-harris Stop with the endless posts on politics and put your money where your mouth is.
Teamsters and Longshoremen not with Kamala, on other hand the Supreme Court is just fine with election fraud. If 25% of good people (Catholics) would actually vote for the lesser of two evils, commies lose forever. Politics are evil, purposely alienating good people from participating.
Kalshi says the market for the presidency will be up in less than 24 hours, see link below: https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections The one big downside is the market outcome won't be verified until January 21, 2025, so your precious capital is tied up. Now in practice, the market will go to 99 cents much earlier, once the winner is all but assured, but there might not be enough liquidity to exit your winner at 99 cents. Not sure this is worth it anymore.
Election Forecast Trading Starting Thursday at 5:15 pm ET Dear Client, Pending regulatory acceptance, IBKR plans to launch trading in election contracts on Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 5:15 pm ET. We plan to offer the following ForecastEx Forecast Contracts at launch: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the United States Senate during the 2024 general election? Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the United States House of Representatives during the 2024 general election? Specific Senate Race Contracts Please check the IBKR ForecastTrader website for the latest updates. If you are already permissioned to trade Futures, you can log in to IBKR ForecastTrader and begin trading Forecast Contracts today. Log in to IBKR ForecastTrader If you do not have Futures trading permission but would like to trade Forecast Contracts, we encourage you to do so as soon as possible as trading permissions are approved overnight. To request trading permission: Log in to Portal Select User ("head/shoulders") > Settings Under Trading, select Trading Permissions Select Forecast and Event Contracts – Request Select Request Permissions Read and acknowledge legal documents and disclosures Select OK Request Trading Permissions Interactive Brokers
I am going to check IB's rules for settlement tomorrow, if they payout earlier than Jan 2025, then I will trade it.