University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Dr. Donald Yealy said on Thursday he believes the coronavirus death rate is much lower than feared, and he sees hospitals returning to normalcy soon. “We’ve learned that way more people, far, far more people have actually been exposed to the infection without any knowledge of it,” Dr. Yealy, chair of emergency medicine explained during an extended conversation with reporters. “That makes the overall death rate much lower. Many people just didn’t feel sick at all and recovered without difficulty.” more at link... yeah I read it at Breitbart... for you for lefties... breitbart is not the story... Its what the Univ of Pitt doc says. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...r-coronavirus-may-be-less-deadly-than-feared/
so here it is... again but better... Its so obvious from the data... and our experience and our empty hospitals... Yet you loons find "experts" telling us the studies are not perfect. They don't fit the peer reviewed process... duh... its pandemic that is only a few months old. You don't need perfect studies to know the models were bullshit... and so is this shutdown for low risk groups... https://www.dailywire.com/news/upmc...-as-reported-hospital-shifting-back-to-normal On Thursday, the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center’s chair of emergency medicine Dr. Donald Yealy claimed the fatality rate of the novel coronavirus is far lower than initially suspected, closer to .25%, based off Allegheny County data and extrapolations from New York and California randomized antibody testing. Initial modeling that crafted policy across the globe, including in the United States, suggested the fatality rate of COVID-19 was anywhere from 2-4%, if not higher. The center, bracing for a surge of patients that have yet to materialize, are working well below capacity, Dr. Yealy noted, announcing a shift in policy to re-open their hospitals back to normal levels. UPMC is Pennsylvania’s largest nongovernmental employer, the center’s website outlines, consisting of 89,000 employees, 40 hospitals, and 700 doctors’ offices and outpatient sites. “Dr. Donald Yealy based it partly on studies of levels of coronavirus antibodies detected in people in New York and California, and partly on COVID-19 deaths in the Pittsburgh region,” a Penn Live report explained, covering Dr. Yealy’s Thursday presser. “The studies found that 5-20% of people had been exposed to the coronavirus, with many noticing only mild illness or none at all, he said.”
that is you new favorite trick for hiding reality. 1. First of all not every one conforms to your nomenclature. 2. I have noticed many public officials use the structure -crude rate and fatality / death rate. I have seen multiple govt and public health officials use that structure. So its very unlikely this doctor confused Case Fatality and Infection rate. I am quite confident he knows far more about this than you. 3. I don't think he confused anything. He meant what he said. The ratio of death to infections is very low vs the original estimates. 4. You once again offered a red herring to confuse the issue. The data shows the fucking virus only kills a very small percentage of those exposed... It really does not matter what name you give that ratio. So seriously stop making such disingenous arguments and understand we would all be better off if we got all the stats and data on the table... and then did a proper balancing of damage caused by the shutdown vs damage saved by the shutdown... using the data we have. Its my thesis... there is very little damage saved by the shutdown for low risk groups because after the shutdown the virus will still be here. Hence all the warnings about the second wave. But you don't have substantive arguments where you have to balance damage saved vs damage done. You just post scary headlines and mostly make red herring type arguments. .. So you come back with this bullshit about nomenclature, Your argument is not really useful. The ratio is real.. the concept is real.. the name given to it less important. Sure it would be best to have consistent use... but useful data is far more important than the name of the ratio.
Not enough people are dying so word salad and fuzzy stat's are now required to keep the lockdown justified. Orginal models were predicting a million plus dead per month. Who knows what numbers they had to plug in to draw that conclusion. They're not far from telling us that it's 90 percent fatal if you get it. What they'll leave out to come up with that is they sampled 20 people in some nursing home, age 85 and over who were on deaths door to begin with and 18 of 20 died. We're all gonna die. Meanwhile in that place known as reality the truth doesn't jive with the narrative, as per usual
I don't find this argument over death rate very important other than to make an issue of how important it is for everyone to be on the same page as far as the method of computing the death rate and uniformity of the criteria for counting a death as Covid or not. That's where strong federal government leadership is essential and one of the reasons we have a federal government. Yet we don't have the leadership right now and the result is this ridiculous haranguing over the death rate, which wouldn't exist had we better leadership. There are an awful lot of terribly sick people and an awful lot of excess deaths in some communities right now, count them as you will..
And an awful lot of damage to peoples health and well being done by the shutdown in places with almost no deaths. You think Trump should be able to tell state Governors to open up?
It's an asymmetrical arrangement. In an emergency, where the Nation's or a States physical well being is at stake, both the State and the Federal Government have the power to close private sector businesses and enforce that closure. The businesses recourse, in that case, is via the Courts. Neither the Federal nor State Governments, however, can order a private business to open. If they don't want to open, they may simply ignore such an order, because it is unenforceable. The State/Federal Governments have no recourse. Trump is a mental case of course, so in a sane world whatever he says would simply be ignored by everyone except his psychiatrist.
"Yealy raised a hypothetical situation, in which roughly three percent of Allegheny County residents were infected. That would mean an estimated 36,000 people contracted COVID-19.. There are, of course, many caveats. First among them is that Allegheny has only reported about 1,300 patients who tested positive." 1,300 patients have known to be infected, but he guessing that 36,000 is the real number? So its article based on guess work. They need to do anti body tests rather guessing.
Sometimes, when everyone around you goes mad, it becomes important to know on which page you are : ,,In the late-1930s, Einstein learned that new research had put German scientists on a path toward creating the atom bomb. The prospect of a doomsday weapon in the hands of the Nazis convinced him to set aside his pacifist principles and team up with Hungarian physicist Leo Szilard, who helped him write a letter urging President Franklin D. Roosevelt to conduct atomic research.'' I think he was one of the few German scientists, if not the only one, who didn't signed the papers, to help the nazis, to build that thing. ***************************************************** Might look at silly first, but Tolkien, was a war veteran, and many ideas for Lord of The Rings, came from his experiences in the war. Sometimes, to keep the reason and sane mind, you have to admit on which page you are, even if that means loosing friends : ,,A dangerous tool'' timestamped