TWNK

Bought a small position in TWNK. Oversold on both daily and weekly. Big drop early October because CEO stated he was retiring. Same CEO bought about a million dollars worth of shares in September. 25% of ownership is corporate insiders.

 

Lots of debt. Free cash flow not real strong.
How will they grow revenue?
This actually is a good short candidate.
Earnings report on 11/08.
Better places to park your money imo.

 

Sorry, I should have stated this in terms of TA and not investment. From a TA perspective it is a good time to jump in being in oversold territory on both daily and weekly charts. Granted, I added in a couple of fundamental nuggets to spice it up.

 

It seems you're looking at the oversold in isolation, look at the whole context of the stock's behavior IE since August stock has gaped down thrice plus going into the earnings it is oversold; which implies the market thinks TWNK will not meet or beat expectations. While anything can happen trading is a game of probabilities and the smart money is saying the surprise scenario is highly unlikely. Proper time to go long is after the trend channel line is broken.

 

Ya, but as I stated earlier, the recent gap down was in response to the CEO announcing his retirement. This same [retiring] CEO will be remaining on the board of directors and bought almost a million dollars worth more shares of TWNK stock just prior to the end of the quarter whose results will be announced on Nov 8th. Does that sound like something someone would do if they knew it was a shhhh Q?

He knows exactly what the EPS will be at the Q end when he bought those shares. This was also the line of reasoning for one of the analyst stating they remained a Buy on the stock with a price target of $20. This was just an overreaction of the market to the news of the CEO.

 

Anything is possible, best of luck!

 

some traders are buying it, some selling it.
But I thought higher chance of earning $$ by shorting but short it early.


anyway, all the best to your trade.

 

Well I may have allowed you naysayers to spook me out coupled with global market uncertainty. I went ahead and sold that position +2.55%, so at least I made a tiny profit from it.

 

I am sorry to hear that, had I known you are spook-able I wouldn't have chimed in...

 

Just as well. It dropped 2.5% after I sold it. I bought in to CRZO and made 4.11% after that so I'm inching my way up.