TVIX versus VIX returns

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by trc4949, Mar 12, 2014.

  1. trc4949

    trc4949

    From July 7th to August 8th 2011 the VIX showed a 214% return.

    From the same time frame the TVIX showed a 197% return.


    Afterwards the stock market volatility continued and the VIX never exceeded its peak on August 8th 2011, but yet the TVIX did continue to move higher for a total return of 500% in a nice uptrend.

    Can anyone here explain to me how or why the TVIX kept going up after August 8th 2011 for greater returns than the VIX achieved ?

    If one was trading the TVIX at the time and then saw the VIX unable to exceed the previous high after August 8th 2011, then maybe would have caused to bail out of
    TVIX, but it went on to earn another 200% which would have been missed out on.

    [​IMG]

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  2. backwardation
     
  3. trc4949

    trc4949

    how can I tell if backwardation is going to occur again ?
     
  4. 1) ? ..... ?? ..... ! .... You need to compare TVIX to VXX, not VIX. :eek: :cool:
    2) With so many darn VIX contracts, you have to be exactly sure you're comparing Granny Smith apples to Granny Smith apples and not Macintosh. :)
     
  5. i mean contango. I always get confused. COntango is pos for XIV and backwardation is pos for TVIX I believe.

    And to answer ur question, i have no clue.:p
     
  6. TVIX = short-term vix futures index

    The short-term vix futures index is basically a 30 day constant maturity vix future.

    If you find out how to predict the curvature change the vix futures term structure let me know :)
     
  7. trc4949

    trc4949

    I think i figured it out.

    When this chart is above 1 then we are in backwardation

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX:$VXV&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82084404813