TSLA

Discussion in 'Options' started by oldnemesis, Sep 4, 2016.

  1. http://www.investors.com/news/techn...-cash-burn-for-the-next-4-5-weeks/?yptr=yahoo

    http://www.investors.com/news/techn...n-comes-at-worst-possible-time-for-elon-musk/

    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...p-today/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wsj-musk-faces-financial-crunches-150216250.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-falls-solarcity-cash-needs-150122711.html

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/financials/fi-126.1.TSLA.NAS

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA

    Musk may finally have over extended himself. The mysterious merger with solarcity may be a desperate move to save solarcity from bankruptcy but Tesla doesn't have the resources without further funding. Will the market advance more cash, can Musk put his personal fortune on the table or let the whole thing blow up??

    http://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/

    http://bgr.com/2016/09/02/elon-musk-tesla-stock-net-worth-takes-billion-dollar-dive/

    meanwhile:
    http://www.investors.com/news/techn...-says-tesla-ready-to-update-autopilot-system/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code

    Trade:
    With TSLA at 197.78
    Mar 270/275 Bear Call Spread for a net credit of $44
    Yield = 44/456 = 9.6% in 194 days or 18.2% annualized
    Prob = 90%
    Expectation = .9(44) - .09(456) - .01(228) = 39.6 - 41.0 - 2.28 = -3.7

    Price............ Profit / Loss ..............ROM %
    150.00................. 44.00.................. 9.60%
    200.00................. 44.00.................. 9.60%
    225.00................. 44.00.................. 9.60%
    250.00................. 44.00.................. 9.60%
    260.00................. 44.00.................. 9.60%
    270.44................... 0.00.................. 0.00%
    275.00.............. (456.00)............... -90.40%
    300.00.............. (456.00)............... -90.40%
    325.00.............. (456.00)............... -90.40%
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2016
  2. Dude - that's kind of a "chicken shit" bet.
    All the way to 270/275 ?
    Why not do the 200/225's ?
     
  3. The guy secured funding through the gov... He is in bed with the money printers... Good luck... You'll probably still earn that far out of the money
     
  4. We're going DOWN, DOWN, DOWN...TSLA under 200 ?
    Wow, I see no support till 100.
    What an over-priced POS.
     
    vanzandt likes this.
  5. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tsla

    So TSLA is continuing to decay. A couple of news items are helping to push it down:


    1. The Amsterdam crash:

    http://www.investopedia.com/news/dr...es-fire-tsla-scty/?partner=YahooSA&yptr=yahoo

    2.The Underperform (sell) rating by Cohen:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/theres-tesla-bear-wall-street-125350785.html

    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...n-right/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

    Jim Cramer considers the Cohen sell a "Cheap Shot"

    https://www.thestreet.com/story/136...p-shot.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo



    On the other side TSLA has secured a 300M credit line from Deutsche Bank:

    http://www.investors.com/news/techn...on-credit-line-from-deutsche-bank/?yptr=yahoo

    But will need a lot more funding soon.
    https://www.thestreet.com/story/136...hortcut-on-tesla-s-path-to-profitability.html


    So what am I doing with TSLA...nothing. My bear call spread stands.

    Somewhere in here TSLA will be a buy. Cohen thinks it's at $160.
    (if you expand that stock chart to weekly you can see a rationalization for that $160 bottom)

    Today a Mar 160/155 bull put spread would yield as much as $100 giving me a Condor. Could happen... but TSLA is not a Condor stock today.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2016
    vanzandt likes this.
  6. Pekelo

    Pekelo

  7. https://www.yahoo.com/news/tesla-wins-gigantic-contract-help-145013915.html

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-battery-storage-after-porter-ranch-gas-leak

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tsla

    To the poster who called my original bear call spread "chicken" and thought I should have made it a tighter in spread: This is why

    TSLA is not company or stock to take lightly. I pulled together a wide range of information to put in that original opinion. I said recently above that it was too soon to add a bull put spread to the bear call spread to get a condor saying that TSLA was not yet a condor stock. We'll see on Monday what the response to this is and make any adjustment necessary.
     
  8. atrp2biz

    atrp2biz

    $2.9 million / 2 MW x 20 MW = $29 million in incremental revenue

    I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this won't have much of an impact to TSLA in the short-term.
     
  9. Last edited: Oct 3, 2016
  10. -----
    From Modern Trader magazine, September; page 69.

    " Tesla trades for $620,000 for every car they delivered in 2015 and $63,000 for every car it hopes to produce in 2020. GM trades for $4,800 for every car they produced in 2015. "

    ----

    I hope like heck Musk survives, but he needs to get it all together and make a profit.
     
    #10     Oct 6, 2016