I would like to ask what your opinion of Trump's tax plan is, which was definitely promising but vague yesterday. Do you think the plan is realistic? Maybe US investors think it sounds too good and want to know more of the details before acting. Also, will he be able to pass it through Congress?
Being discussed here https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/trump-tax-plan-professional-traders.308995/
Do you think players have already priced that in or will there be a big market selloff if Congress doesn't pass it? This is obviously a subjective question, just asking for opinions.
I have been in this business since 1981. I have an MBA in Finance. I understand the math behind options. I understand supply and demand, fear and greed. I have no idea what makes big money move in and out of sectors or the market. That part of the world does not make sense to me and at times seem like a child has their hand on a lever playing games.
I'd prefer not to state publicly so I don't get a response from my compliance. Happy to chat with anyone privately.
It is dreadful in many respects, horrible in others. No chance of passing. Trump's entire campaign from the Get-go has been 'Reagan on Steroids' right down to the slogan. But Reagan* came into office in a recession; Trump is coming in near full employment, i.e., all the robots are working. The '81 Reagan cuts had to be scaled back. But the loss of income tax brackets we never recovered from. We desperately need more upper brackets; not fewer. The loss of brackets, compounded over time, has played a significant role in accelerating the natural tendency of wealth distributions to develop skew. Trumps plan has some of the same defects as Reagan's, but coming at the wrong point in the business cycle, its closer to the payday loan business model than anything I learned in school. It's a horrible, horrible plan. Thank god it won't pass! Of course if the goal is to goose the market, make the wealthy wealthier, the poor poorer, live for today; screw tomorrow, it's a marvelous plan. Is Art Laffer hiding in a White House closet? (The selfish in me wants this thing to pass intact. I'd make out like a bandit, and I'll be dead by the time the consequences arrive.) ________________________ *Reagan's major accomplishment (in which he collaborated with Greenspan and for which his administration should be lauded) was putting Social Security back on a sound basis. Since then, Congress, by systematically ignoring the actuaries recommendations, has allowed the soundness of S.S. to deteriorate. It's been intentional, not accidental. On the downside, Reagan's 'tax revolution' which actually raised the rate on the lowest bracket, was responsible, in no small measure, for exacerbating the wealth distribution problem. The present unhealthy distribution is the result of compounding the effect of bracket collapse over many years. After the initial round of cuts in 1981, which had to be partially undone, there was so little difference between the bottom and top marginal rates that the nation was approaching a flat tax.
Whatever changes ultimately in the "tax plan", it won't be dramatic for us peons. One thing I'd like to see... If corporations are to be taxed at all, that it be on "world wide income whether or not profits are brought onto America shores". The business of avoiding taxes by keeping profits overseas is BS!! As to this issue... what I'd like to see...(1) corporations pay a low earnings tax of say, 15%... and then (2) dividends to shareholders be income tax free. After all, corporate earnings have already been taxed before dividends are paid. Then again, that's just me. I'm into "what's fair", and "K.I.S.S."