https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trumps-polymarket-surge-powered-30-million-bet-just-4-accounts Trump's Polymarket Surge Powered By $30 Million Bet By Just 4 Accounts by Tyler Durden Saturday, Oct 19, 2024 - 06:15 PM Few recent developments in the 2024 White House race have been as swift and seemingly prophetical as a huge October swing toward Donald Trump in the crypto-based Polymarket online betting marketplace. From even odds at the start of the month, the odds of a Trump victory have surged to 60%, while the odds of Kamala Harris win have fallen to 40%. Now, the Wall Street Journal is reporting the move is largely the work of just four accounts that have together plowed $30 million into bets on the former president. What's more, the timing of the four accounts' moves suggests they could be controlled by a single owner. Polymarket has engaged outside experts to scrutinize transactions in presidential election betting, an unnamed source told the Journal. The four accounts have concentrated on bets that Trump will come out atop the electoral college count, but have also dabbled in side-wagers on individual state contests, as well as taking some flyers on Trump winning the popular vote. That's a long shot indeed, as Polymarket currently gives Trump only a 32% chance of doing that. “There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” Arkham Intelligence CEO Miguel Morel tells the Journal: The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month. In its report, the Journal worked to substantiate the notion that the concentrated bets represent some form of intentional narrative-control scheme, saying "[Trump's] surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts," a view embraced by crypto investor Adam Cochran, a self-described right-of-center Harris-backer. To its credit, however, the Journal also tapped Rutgers University stats professor Harry Crane, who noted that other betting markets also have Trump in the lead, and that big bettors routinely nudge all manner of market odds. "Purchasing a large number of shares on one outcome does not require any ulterior motive or effort to manipulate the market,” he said. Americans are officially barred from Polymarket, and a source "familiar with the matter" has assured Reuters that the four accounts behind the $30 million wave of bets are not owned by an American, a conclusion that rests on the firm's practice of certifying large traders to verify they aren't using VPNs to hide their origins. As the Polymarket surge began in early October, Trump-backer Elon Musk publicized Trump's then-3% lead in the odds, describing betting markets as "more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line." In addition to the 60% chance of a Trump victory, Polymarket now has the GOP with an 81% chance of taking over the Senate, but gives Democrats a 51% chance of controlling the House of Representatives. ----------------------------------------- So on all betting website regarding the next US presidency win like Kalshi and Polymarket, they are all fake and scammed by just one person or one group ? Is it that easy to manipulate ? I mean there are plenty of folks believing more in such betting website than actual polls. What is the truth now ? Let us discuss little bit. It is not too late. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-election-betting-odds-polymarket-theories.html
i was a once a huge buyer and seller of goods on one of the biggest auction sites on the internet. for a decade i would buy items at higher than usual prices that i knew were undervalued and buy up all i could get. then as the market realized that item was no longer available and demand surged, i would sell off at premium prices. people always thought i had several accounts bidding against each other to inflate the sell price duh? so why would someone waste 30mm to make it look like trump is the thing to bet on duh really stupid idea. also it shows to what extent the left is so far out of their mind they would have such twisted logic as this article. this is the kind of thinking that is spawned in mom's basement and at colleges.
elon musk has been pump and dumping DOGE for the past few years. Using $30M of crypto profits to manipulate the odds of winning is a bargain + will probably end up in profit.
America will be burned down before you can say tax credits if that stinking orange traitor is installed by Putin again.
Sadly, He can spend 40 minutes talking about Arnold Palmer's dick or he can spend 40 minutes dancing during a Q&A and 50% of America will vote for him.
What makes you say that? Current administration seems far worse. It's like choosing between 2 bad options but the alternative is just so far worse.
The problem I see is, that when there are huge tariffs coming some really big market players do not like this at all. The last time it was installed against China the market tanked 25% drawdown. So that is my fear that market will kind crash when huge tariffs will be implemented. Longterm there is no one winning and it is a loose loose game only, so I understand that some of biggest players are selling across all sectors. But for my investment positions it would hurt them of course. Anyone else has a different opinion on huge tariffs ?
Arnold Palmer designed the golf course my dad mostly played. I met him as a kid, Trump has tainted that. He must go to prison. Complete media access blackout. Bannon will be out at the start of next month. If they are smart, he will have a delay. Unless the plan is to catch him in some proper traitorous shenanigans.